My Markets for the first 3 races on the card at Gosford on Tuesday read as follows.
Gosford R1 2100m 16K Mdn par8.00
No1 Cross The Waiter 6.70
No2 End Of Time 5.00
No3 Explorer Club 13.50
No4 Freddy 18.00
No5 Lake Eerie 6.70
No6 Oilysam 11.80
No7 Saintly Sun 35.00
No8 Yates Road 6.70
No9 Set The Spinnaker 8.50
Gosford R2 1000m 16K Mdn par8.00
No1 Manchebo 5.80
No2 Maximian 12.00
No3 Rahula 9.10
No4 Ransom Gaze 20.00
No5 Sun Command 14.50
No6 Barbelle 11.00
No7 Catch A Thief 14.50
No8 Conflicting Dreams 18.00
No9 Hussonet Rose 27.00
No10 Banana Bender 7.80
No11 Certain Star 7.30
Gosford R3 1100m 16K Mdn 3yo par16.00
No1 Exceeded 8.40
No4 Caeser's Princess 12.00
No5 Angel Of Mercy 6.80
No7 Hannah Jane 18.00
No8 Misaquiline 16.00
No12 She Goes To Rio 6.00
No13 Syncopated 9.00
No14 Rise Against 14.00
No17 Pride Of China 8.00
Rest Of Field (4more) 16.00
Good luck and happy punting.
Monday, 15 August 2011
Early UK Markets For Monday
Below are the early markets for 5 UK Races I plan on covering on Monday. More updates for each race with betting advice to follow.
My assessed odds and markets for the 5 FREE UK races covered on Monday read as follows.
Windsor 5.40 10f 2.2K C5 0-75 4yo+ par8.00
No1 Halyard 15.00
No2 Edgeworth 13.00
No3 Lang Shining 30.00
No4 Choral Festival 6.30
No5 Urban Space 3.90
No6 Blue Spartan 20.00
No7 Count Ceprano 7.40
No8 Super Duplex 7.40
No9 Colinca's Lad 10.50
Windsor 7.10 1m67y 4K C4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Totally Ours 6.90
No2 Thistle Bird 4.60
No3 Cloud Illusions 5.20
No4 Sure Route 5.70
No5 Rosedale 34.00
No6 Countermarch 21.00
No7 Ela Gonda Mou 10.30
No8 Young Dottie 21.00
No9 Birdolini 19.00
Yarmouth 6.20 10f21y 1.6K C6 3-4yo par8.00
No1 Uphold 2.70
No2 Malice Of Mischief 2.35
No3 Colzium 34.00
No4 Easydoesit 15.00
No5 Ocean's Dream Day 13.50
No6 Imperial Fong 22.00
Yarmouth 6.50 7f 4K C4 0-80 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Vitznau 11.30
No2 Elspeth's Boy 10.00
No3 Rough Rock 9.40
No4 Cloud Rock 5.30
No5 Aleqa 8.20
No6 Ongoodform 10.00
No7 Bravo King 5.00
No8 My Own Way Home 10.00
Yarmouth 7.50 6f 2.2K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 El Maachi 4.60
No2 Climaxfortackle 7.30
No3 Paradise Spectre 11.00
No4 Dictionary 6.40
No5 I Got You Babe 4.50
No6 Bahamian Jazz 7.00
No7 Comrade Bond 29.00
Good luck and happy punting.
Friday, 12 August 2011
Another Punter Profits $2300 From Place Betting Last Week Following My Member Ratings
I love showing you guys the real results I get for my punters. Here is screen shots sent in from another punter who has made $2600 in the last week from following my "member" advice.....Yes, some of my "Member Advice" races are shown on here but I also offer even higher quality race analysis to members. Anyway, this punter follows mainly Australian racing ratings I produce and also the UK but only on days when I rate the betting quality "A+" which is probably once every 4 of 5 days of coverage.
After I finish doing the form for the day in either Australia or the UK I have generally recognized a confidence level in my ratings compared to the real value on offer in the betting markets. I grade this general feeling I develop daily from A+ for very very high confidence through to C-, confidence still predicted but overall depth of value low.
These screen shots are for the total wallet profits, $1379.52 main wallet profit and $985.29 Australian wallet profit.
After I finish doing the form for the day in either Australia or the UK I have generally recognized a confidence level in my ratings compared to the real value on offer in the betting markets. I grade this general feeling I develop daily from A+ for very very high confidence through to C-, confidence still predicted but overall depth of value low.
These screen shots are for the total wallet profits, $1379.52 main wallet profit and $985.29 Australian wallet profit.
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| Main wallet race detail report for profit and loss showing profit of $1379.52 for last 7 days |
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| AUS wallet race detail report for profit and loss showing profit of $985.29 for last 7 days Good luck and happy punting. |
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Caulfield Saturday - I'm Keen To Oppose Bel Sprinter In Race 5
Race 5 at Caulfield on Saturday shapes up as an overly strong sprinting contest and the undefeated Bel Esprit 4yo Bel Sprinter has been installed a shortish price favorite with bookmakers early around the 3.70 to 3.90 mark. Realistically it is being asked to take another step up the class ladder vs some season and lightly raced stakes quality horses who are proven, some with good scope. Add into the mix the wide gate of 11 Bel Sprinter has drawn it is quickly starts to look unders and worth opposing in a confident way.
My market for the 1200m Listed race at Caulfield on Saturday (Race5) reads as follows, only major seen chances included in rated prices listed below.
Caulfield R5
No1 Eagle Falls 8.80
No6 Bullbars 5.20
No8 Gold Salute 26.00
No10 Panipique 6.90
No14 Swiss Rose 33.00
No15 Bel Sprinter 9.50
No16 Utah Saints 8.80
Caulfield R5 No6 Bullbars - decent overs exists about this Snowden trained Elusive Quality 4yo stallion 1st up from a spell, lightly raced winner 2 from 9 who has shown every indication so far in its short career that is it destined to win stakes races, gets a good weight here and in well weighted with a good 1st up record, yard places their horses to perfection, Bel Sprinter being quoted a shortish clear cut favorite early at 3.70 creates good value about Bullbars which is offered up at 11.00 in early fixed odds markets, we feel Bel Sprinter may be a bit exposed drawn out on the 11 alley trying to make it 4 on end, really need to win with authority last start which from a video form perspective we were not really taken by the win vd the class some of the other hold here such as Bullbars (top rated runner at 5.20) and Panipique who represents the Moody yard and has a win over Crystal Lilly 1st up in its CV (2nd top rated runner at 6.90). Back Bullbars each way to win here at the good odds of 11.00. Lay Bel Sprinter in the win market to a max price of 4.20.
Win Betting - 5 units on Bullbars at odds of 11.00, 2 units Panipique at odds of 7.00.
Place Betting - 8 units on Bullbars at odds of 3.50, fixed Qld TAB price.
Lay Betting - Lay Bel Sprinter in the win betting market at odds of approx 4.20 or thereabouts to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 1200m Listed race at Caulfield on Saturday (Race5) reads as follows, only major seen chances included in rated prices listed below.
Caulfield R5
No1 Eagle Falls 8.80
No6 Bullbars 5.20
No8 Gold Salute 26.00
No10 Panipique 6.90
No14 Swiss Rose 33.00
No15 Bel Sprinter 9.50
No16 Utah Saints 8.80
Caulfield R5 No6 Bullbars - decent overs exists about this Snowden trained Elusive Quality 4yo stallion 1st up from a spell, lightly raced winner 2 from 9 who has shown every indication so far in its short career that is it destined to win stakes races, gets a good weight here and in well weighted with a good 1st up record, yard places their horses to perfection, Bel Sprinter being quoted a shortish clear cut favorite early at 3.70 creates good value about Bullbars which is offered up at 11.00 in early fixed odds markets, we feel Bel Sprinter may be a bit exposed drawn out on the 11 alley trying to make it 4 on end, really need to win with authority last start which from a video form perspective we were not really taken by the win vd the class some of the other hold here such as Bullbars (top rated runner at 5.20) and Panipique who represents the Moody yard and has a win over Crystal Lilly 1st up in its CV (2nd top rated runner at 6.90). Back Bullbars each way to win here at the good odds of 11.00. Lay Bel Sprinter in the win market to a max price of 4.20.
Win Betting - 5 units on Bullbars at odds of 11.00, 2 units Panipique at odds of 7.00.
Place Betting - 8 units on Bullbars at odds of 3.50, fixed Qld TAB price.
Lay Betting - Lay Bel Sprinter in the win betting market at odds of approx 4.20 or thereabouts to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
Geelong Previews For 3 Races On Friday
Another Geelong on the Synthetic track is upon us on Friday and as usual I have identified 3 races worth potentially betting into. below are the assessed markets taking in the major seen chances along with detailed assessments of each of the major elects.
Geelong Friday betting information for Race 6,7,8 as follows.
Geelong R8
No5 Al Omghe 12.20
No8 Ebony Rock 9.50
No9 Shelters 4.20
No10 Vacqueyras 5.90
Geelong R8 No9 Shelters - Snowden trained Lonhro 4yo mare and lightly raced having only faced the starter 4 times, totally forget last start effort, 2 back handy Sandown win over Volando who franked the form running 2nd and 1st next 2 starts in town, likely near perfect trip from inside gate and only needs luck in the stretch to win, clearly good scope for more especially being out of the well related Danehill mare Hut, ticks all of the right boxes.
Geelong R7
No2 Swift Sands 10.50
No3 Elite Ebony 9.50
No5 Miss Parma 11.60
No6 Kapcher 15.80
No7 North East 7.40
No13 Noble Twostep 3.80
Geelong R7 No13 Noble Twostep - fairly keen on the Rick Hore Lacy trained Noble Twostep here, good speed pedigree by Stratum out of a Second Empire mare and was a $100K Inglis Premier graduate, good scope for further improvement making a sharp drop in class on back of being beaten only 1.7l into 7th at Caulfield last start for a $70K purse, drawn perfectly in the 6 alley and we expect it to race closer to the pace as it did when 1st up at Sandown 3 back and also when winning at Cranbourne in January, clearly above the level required to win here, we have it rated as a 3.80 chance, next best is North East rated as a 7.40 chance. Noble Twostep clear on top, the one to beat.
Geelong R6
No2 Bold Dazzler 6.30
No3 Eight Ways 8.80
No5 King's Dream 3.65
No8 Speeler 5.50
No9 Bioko 8.80
Geelong R6 No5 King's Dream - hard to go past the chances of the impressive last start winning Elvestroem 4yo King's Dream, putting together a decent record now espcecially over this trip (5starts, 2wins, 3paces), won going away at Morphettville last start on the back of finishing 3rd to Speeler (also engaged here) the start prior at Seymour, definitely has nit a new level since that 3rd to Speeler and should turn the tables on that rival here if it holds the Morphettville level which it should do, we've got it rated as 3.60 market leader with next best Speeler at 5.50, Bold Dazzler on the 3rd line at 6.30, if they bet 11/4 or better about King's Dream it becomes a backable commodity.
Geelong Friday betting information for Race 6,7,8 as follows.
Geelong R8
No5 Al Omghe 12.20
No8 Ebony Rock 9.50
No9 Shelters 4.20
No10 Vacqueyras 5.90
Geelong R8 No9 Shelters - Snowden trained Lonhro 4yo mare and lightly raced having only faced the starter 4 times, totally forget last start effort, 2 back handy Sandown win over Volando who franked the form running 2nd and 1st next 2 starts in town, likely near perfect trip from inside gate and only needs luck in the stretch to win, clearly good scope for more especially being out of the well related Danehill mare Hut, ticks all of the right boxes.
Geelong R7
No2 Swift Sands 10.50
No3 Elite Ebony 9.50
No5 Miss Parma 11.60
No6 Kapcher 15.80
No7 North East 7.40
No13 Noble Twostep 3.80
Geelong R7 No13 Noble Twostep - fairly keen on the Rick Hore Lacy trained Noble Twostep here, good speed pedigree by Stratum out of a Second Empire mare and was a $100K Inglis Premier graduate, good scope for further improvement making a sharp drop in class on back of being beaten only 1.7l into 7th at Caulfield last start for a $70K purse, drawn perfectly in the 6 alley and we expect it to race closer to the pace as it did when 1st up at Sandown 3 back and also when winning at Cranbourne in January, clearly above the level required to win here, we have it rated as a 3.80 chance, next best is North East rated as a 7.40 chance. Noble Twostep clear on top, the one to beat.
Geelong R6
No2 Bold Dazzler 6.30
No3 Eight Ways 8.80
No5 King's Dream 3.65
No8 Speeler 5.50
No9 Bioko 8.80
Geelong R6 No5 King's Dream - hard to go past the chances of the impressive last start winning Elvestroem 4yo King's Dream, putting together a decent record now espcecially over this trip (5starts, 2wins, 3paces), won going away at Morphettville last start on the back of finishing 3rd to Speeler (also engaged here) the start prior at Seymour, definitely has nit a new level since that 3rd to Speeler and should turn the tables on that rival here if it holds the Morphettville level which it should do, we've got it rated as 3.60 market leader with next best Speeler at 5.50, Bold Dazzler on the 3rd line at 6.30, if they bet 11/4 or better about King's Dream it becomes a backable commodity.
Good luck and happy punting.
Early Markets For Seven UK Races On Thursday
I have covered 7 races from Newmarket and Goodwood on Thursday so far and all of the early assessed prices for those races are listed below. More detailed betting advice closer to post for each race.
My rated markets for the 7 races covered from Newmarket and Goodwood reads as follows.
Newmarket 3.25 7f 3.2K C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Amazing Win 11.00
No2 Bashama 7.60
No3 Interaction 4.80
No4 Phoenix City 5.10
No5 Regal Heiress 2.85
No6 Shakira 34.00
Newmarket 4.00 7f 7.7K C2 2yo par8.00
No1 Commissar 4.60
No2 Trumpet Major 2.50
No3 Elkhart 8.20
No4 Dance The Rain 3.70
Newmarket 4.35 7f 10.3K C2 0-100 3yo par8.00
No1 Trade Storm 9.00
No2 Forjaat 9.00
No3 Seal Rock 5.10
No4 Ahlaain 9.00
No5 El Viento 5.10
No6 Sea Soldier 6.30
No7 Sonning Rose 28.50
No8 White Forest 11.50
Newmarket 5.10 12f 4.2K C4 0-80 3yo par8.00
No1 Lexington Bay 4.30
No2 Planetoid 3.00
No3 Franciscan 8.70
No4 A Boy Named Suzi 13.50
No5 Quails Hollow 4.90
No6 Little Jazz 19.50
Goodwood 5.30 5f 2.5K C5 0-70 2yo par8.00
No1 Ocean Myth 2.90
No2 Leenavesta 9.40
No3 Stepper Point 7.50
No4 Dressed In Lace 5.00
No5 Sister Guru 9.80
No6 Russian Ballet 28.00
No7 Sweet Ovation 11.40
Goodwood 6.00 10f 2.5K (3K) C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Dean Swift 3.10
No2 Fruehling 10.50
No3 Knightly Escapade 9.20
No4 Midnight Moon 9.20
No5 Touching The Stars 11.00
No6 Hayaku 3.90
No7 Pani Ash 41.00
Goodwood 6.30 12f 4.2K C4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Trip The Light 8.50
No2 Foxhaven 11.00
No3 Dynamic Drive 10.00
No4 King's Bayonet 8.50
No5 Aldwick Bay 2.65
No6 Rastaban 4.90
Good luck and happy punting.
My rated markets for the 7 races covered from Newmarket and Goodwood reads as follows.
Newmarket 3.25 7f 3.2K C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Amazing Win 11.00
No2 Bashama 7.60
No3 Interaction 4.80
No4 Phoenix City 5.10
No5 Regal Heiress 2.85
No6 Shakira 34.00
Newmarket 4.00 7f 7.7K C2 2yo par8.00
No1 Commissar 4.60
No2 Trumpet Major 2.50
No3 Elkhart 8.20
No4 Dance The Rain 3.70
Newmarket 4.35 7f 10.3K C2 0-100 3yo par8.00
No1 Trade Storm 9.00
No2 Forjaat 9.00
No3 Seal Rock 5.10
No4 Ahlaain 9.00
No5 El Viento 5.10
No6 Sea Soldier 6.30
No7 Sonning Rose 28.50
No8 White Forest 11.50
Newmarket 5.10 12f 4.2K C4 0-80 3yo par8.00
No1 Lexington Bay 4.30
No2 Planetoid 3.00
No3 Franciscan 8.70
No4 A Boy Named Suzi 13.50
No5 Quails Hollow 4.90
No6 Little Jazz 19.50
Goodwood 5.30 5f 2.5K C5 0-70 2yo par8.00
No1 Ocean Myth 2.90
No2 Leenavesta 9.40
No3 Stepper Point 7.50
No4 Dressed In Lace 5.00
No5 Sister Guru 9.80
No6 Russian Ballet 28.00
No7 Sweet Ovation 11.40
Goodwood 6.00 10f 2.5K (3K) C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Dean Swift 3.10
No2 Fruehling 10.50
No3 Knightly Escapade 9.20
No4 Midnight Moon 9.20
No5 Touching The Stars 11.00
No6 Hayaku 3.90
No7 Pani Ash 41.00
Goodwood 6.30 12f 4.2K C4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Trip The Light 8.50
No2 Foxhaven 11.00
No3 Dynamic Drive 10.00
No4 King's Bayonet 8.50
No5 Aldwick Bay 2.65
No6 Rastaban 4.90
Good luck and happy punting.
Wednesday, 10 August 2011
Yarmouth 2.50 - Chasing Another Perfect Storm
Great results for the 2 races covered from Ayr on Tuesday offered for FREE on my blog. Today the first race I will post is the 2.50 from Yarmouth, this looks a decent kind of betting race despite the small field.
My market for the 2.50 at Yarmouth reads as follows.
Yarmouth 2.50 7f 2.2k c5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Satwar Laird 3.15
No2 Dashwood 5.10
No4 Here To Eternity 3.15
No5 Yahafedh Aliah 22.50
No6 Cornish Quest 7.90
Win Betting - With Dashwood being so short as the 3.20 fav in early betting it creates excellent value about my equal top elects Satwar Laird and Here To Eternity. We can back both on the pretence we simply have the race nailed, no point trying to split them considering they are both overs. Bet 10 units to win on Satwar Laird at 3.50, Bet 7 units to win on Here To Eternity at odds of 5.90.
Place Betting - back the longer of the top 2 equal rated being Here To Eternity, on offer in the place market at 2.60, bet 8 units to place.
Lay Betting - Lay Dashwood in the win betting market as the 3.20 early favorite, rated longer at 5.10, lay to risk 10 units at odds of 3.20. Also good value in the PLACE betting market to lay Yahafedh Aliah at odds of 3.30 considering I have it rated complete outsider at 22.50. Lay to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 2.50 at Yarmouth reads as follows.
Yarmouth 2.50 7f 2.2k c5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Satwar Laird 3.15
No2 Dashwood 5.10
No4 Here To Eternity 3.15
No5 Yahafedh Aliah 22.50
No6 Cornish Quest 7.90
Win Betting - With Dashwood being so short as the 3.20 fav in early betting it creates excellent value about my equal top elects Satwar Laird and Here To Eternity. We can back both on the pretence we simply have the race nailed, no point trying to split them considering they are both overs. Bet 10 units to win on Satwar Laird at 3.50, Bet 7 units to win on Here To Eternity at odds of 5.90.
Place Betting - back the longer of the top 2 equal rated being Here To Eternity, on offer in the place market at 2.60, bet 8 units to place.
Lay Betting - Lay Dashwood in the win betting market as the 3.20 early favorite, rated longer at 5.10, lay to risk 10 units at odds of 3.20. Also good value in the PLACE betting market to lay Yahafedh Aliah at odds of 3.30 considering I have it rated complete outsider at 22.50. Lay to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
Previews Of Ayr 3.30 & 4.30, More from Ffos Las To Come
2 decent betting races from Ayr in the 3.30 and 4.30 which are the 2 races I will be previewing from that venue for FREE to blog visitors.
My market for the 3.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 3.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 She's Got The Luck 4.10
No2 Sistine 4.35
No3 Arctic Cat 4.35
No4 Henry's Gift 6.90
No5 Purkab 9.60
No6 Smart Violetta 19.00
No7 Littlepromisedland scr
Win Betting - top elect she's Got The Luck rated 4.10 and trades at 4.90, minor overs, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same, minor overs about top elect She's Got The Luck but equal 2nd raters only just behind so no major confidence, bet 3 units to place on She's Got The Luck at odds of 2.40, may drift slight further.
Lay Betting - no major advantage in lay betting associated to win market, place market I suggest laying Purkab at odds of approx 3.40, lay to risk 6 units.
My market for the 4.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 4.30 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo par8.00
No1 Spinatrix 4.10
No2 Cruise Tothelimit 5.60
No3 Another Citizen 3.80
No4 Saxonette 12.00
No5 Normandy Maid 8.20
No6 Magic Rhythm 23.00
No7 Monel 13.70
Win Betting - no major advantage in win betting market, no bets offered.
Place Betting - same as win betting market, punters have prices about spot on right.
Lay Betting - best advantage here is laying Monel in the PLACE betting market, lay at approx 3.50, lay to risk 7 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 3.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 3.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 She's Got The Luck 4.10
No2 Sistine 4.35
No3 Arctic Cat 4.35
No4 Henry's Gift 6.90
No5 Purkab 9.60
No6 Smart Violetta 19.00
No7 Littlepromisedland scr
Win Betting - top elect she's Got The Luck rated 4.10 and trades at 4.90, minor overs, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same, minor overs about top elect She's Got The Luck but equal 2nd raters only just behind so no major confidence, bet 3 units to place on She's Got The Luck at odds of 2.40, may drift slight further.
Lay Betting - no major advantage in lay betting associated to win market, place market I suggest laying Purkab at odds of approx 3.40, lay to risk 6 units.
My market for the 4.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 4.30 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo par8.00
No1 Spinatrix 4.10
No2 Cruise Tothelimit 5.60
No3 Another Citizen 3.80
No4 Saxonette 12.00
No5 Normandy Maid 8.20
No6 Magic Rhythm 23.00
No7 Monel 13.70
Win Betting - no major advantage in win betting market, no bets offered.
Place Betting - same as win betting market, punters have prices about spot on right.
Lay Betting - best advantage here is laying Monel in the PLACE betting market, lay at approx 3.50, lay to risk 7 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
Monday, 8 August 2011
Nice Lay Betting Results Amounting To $2600+ Profit Last 14 Days For One Of My Loyal Followers
Good to see plenty of cats are winning off my information. Always handy to know the betting information I put together is being used smartly exploiting the best angles and it can clearly be stated from my own personal experience the LAY Bets I identify are very high class and very low risk long term.
Here is some screen shots for one of the guys who lay bets for the last 14 days, July 25 to August 7.
Total 32 bets across these 30 markets for 27 winning trades out of 32, odds that the losing lays were at was 1.85, 3.25, 5.11, 4.00, 2.27
Here is the screen shots from those 30 markets as listed above.
Hopefully a few more of you are cottoning on and working out how to exploit my ratings for the best profit just like this smart cat!
Good luck and happy punting.
Here is some screen shots for one of the guys who lay bets for the last 14 days, July 25 to August 7.
Total 32 bets across these 30 markets for 27 winning trades out of 32, odds that the losing lays were at was 1.85, 3.25, 5.11, 4.00, 2.27
Here is the screen shots from those 30 markets as listed above.
Hopefully a few more of you are cottoning on and working out how to exploit my ratings for the best profit just like this smart cat!
Good luck and happy punting.
Early Previews For Geelong Race 1 through Race 5 on Tuesday
Looks a decent betting meeting from Geelong on Tuesday in Australia. Below are my rated markets for the first 5 races on the card. Early scratchings have already been removed.
My assessed markets for Races 1 to 5 at Geelong on Tuesday read as follows.
My assessed markets for Races 1 to 5 at Geelong on Tuesday read as follows.
Further updates for Tuesday Australian racing will be added later.
Good luck and happy punting.
Sunday, 7 August 2011
Curragh 4.05 - Another Under Rated Ballydoyle Runner
The G1 Phoenix Stakes (Curragh 4.05) looks a very good value betting race with another under rated lightly raced Ballydoyle charge catching my attention.
My market for the 4.05 at The Curragh (G1 Phoenix Stakes) reads as follows.
Curragh 4.05 6f 110K G1 (G2) 2yo par8.00
No1 Frederick Engels 9.70
No2 Gatepost 13.00
No3 Lilbourne Lad 6.40
No4 Parish Hall 11.00
No5 Power 6.00
No6 Reply 4.70
No7 Tough As Nails 8.80
No8 After 48.00
No9 La Collina 16.00
Win Betting - Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O'Brien engaged 2 Oasis Dream colts here and it is the longer one of the two Reply that takes my fancy, its last start 4l space job on Slade Power reads well suggesting it improved markedly on its debut 3rd to Requinto the start prior. Currently trades at 12.00, Ive got it clear on top rated at 4.70. Bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same horse obviously targeted for place betting. Bet 8 units to place on Reply at odds of 3.20.
Lay Betting - great value lay betting race. Lay Frederick Engels in the win betting market, trades as favorite currently at 3.90, rated at 9.70, overall further scope very questionable, lay to risk 12 units at 4.00 (likely to drift in win market). Same horse can be laid in the PLACE betting market likely to trade at 1.60 approx, lay to risk 2 units in the PLACE market.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 4.05 at The Curragh (G1 Phoenix Stakes) reads as follows.
Curragh 4.05 6f 110K G1 (G2) 2yo par8.00
No1 Frederick Engels 9.70
No2 Gatepost 13.00
No3 Lilbourne Lad 6.40
No4 Parish Hall 11.00
No5 Power 6.00
No6 Reply 4.70
No7 Tough As Nails 8.80
No8 After 48.00
No9 La Collina 16.00
Win Betting - Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O'Brien engaged 2 Oasis Dream colts here and it is the longer one of the two Reply that takes my fancy, its last start 4l space job on Slade Power reads well suggesting it improved markedly on its debut 3rd to Requinto the start prior. Currently trades at 12.00, Ive got it clear on top rated at 4.70. Bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same horse obviously targeted for place betting. Bet 8 units to place on Reply at odds of 3.20.
Lay Betting - great value lay betting race. Lay Frederick Engels in the win betting market, trades as favorite currently at 3.90, rated at 9.70, overall further scope very questionable, lay to risk 12 units at 4.00 (likely to drift in win market). Same horse can be laid in the PLACE betting market likely to trade at 1.60 approx, lay to risk 2 units in the PLACE market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Leicester 3.45 - Open Affair, Potential Good Betting Race
The 3.45 at Leicester looks to offer up some decent value for all comers, win, place and lay. Read on for more info.
My market for the 3.45 at Leicester is rated as follows.
Leicester 3.45 10f 4.5K C4 0-85 4yo+ par8.00
No1 Resentful Angel 6.80
No2 Destiny Of A Diva 9.80
No3 San Cassiano 4.60
No4 Scamperdale 12.80
No5 Tartan Gunna 6.60
No6 Art Scholar 6.80
No7 Follow The Flag 56.00
No8 Minsky Mine 6.80
Win Betting - Fairly open market with the top 5 only 2.20 in terms of odds apart from shortest to longest of those 5. San Cassiano is minor overs as top elect, trades at 5.70, bet 3 units to win. Tartan Gunna the minor 2nd elect has the exposed required form and gets in well weighted to figure, showing signs of hitting that level, trades at 9.00, bet 2 units to win. Back both San Cassiano and Tartan Gunna for a result across the race.
Place Betting - prefer to back the 2nd elect here Tartun Gunna who offers up slightly better value than the other major seen chance in terms of return vs rated win price. Bet 3 units to place on Tartan Gunna trading at 2.70.
Lay Betting - win market lay is Scamperdale, Lay to risk 15 units at 4.60. Rated 12.80, big unders. Same horse can also be laid in the place market to risk 3 units at odds of 1.72.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 3.45 at Leicester is rated as follows.
Leicester 3.45 10f 4.5K C4 0-85 4yo+ par8.00
No1 Resentful Angel 6.80
No2 Destiny Of A Diva 9.80
No3 San Cassiano 4.60
No4 Scamperdale 12.80
No5 Tartan Gunna 6.60
No6 Art Scholar 6.80
No7 Follow The Flag 56.00
No8 Minsky Mine 6.80
Win Betting - Fairly open market with the top 5 only 2.20 in terms of odds apart from shortest to longest of those 5. San Cassiano is minor overs as top elect, trades at 5.70, bet 3 units to win. Tartan Gunna the minor 2nd elect has the exposed required form and gets in well weighted to figure, showing signs of hitting that level, trades at 9.00, bet 2 units to win. Back both San Cassiano and Tartan Gunna for a result across the race.
Place Betting - prefer to back the 2nd elect here Tartun Gunna who offers up slightly better value than the other major seen chance in terms of return vs rated win price. Bet 3 units to place on Tartan Gunna trading at 2.70.
Lay Betting - win market lay is Scamperdale, Lay to risk 15 units at 4.60. Rated 12.80, big unders. Same horse can also be laid in the place market to risk 3 units at odds of 1.72.
Good luck and happy punting.
Curragh 3.35 - Ballydoyle Underdog Has Claims
The Ballydoyle runner Maybe is all the rage in the G2 Debutante Stakes (Curragh 3.35) but I do feel this well related Galileo filly (dam 3/4 sister to 2011 Oaks winner Dancing Rain) is exposed in terms of potential scope for further improvement compared to some of its foes, all in all it is a fairly open race, one of the other Balloydolye runners, Soon (also by Galileo) is the value runner trading at 25/1 in the win market on the exchanges.
I have the 3.35 from The Curragh rated as follows.
Curragh 3.35 7f 61K G2 2yof par8.00
No1 Chieftess 110.00
No2 Lightening Pearl 42.00
No3 Maybe 6.50
No4 Redoutable 11.00
No5 Remember Alexander 5.40
No6 Rubina 18.00
No7 Soon 4.80
No8 Teolane 7.40
No9 Tiffilia 29.00
No10 Yellow Rosebud 9.30
*Market still includes Tiffilia, now scratched, deduction only 35 on my market so no major difference, adjustments to prices above not made.
Win Betting - as stated above the value here is created about Maybe being overbet, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50. The other Ballydoyle runner Soon is the value runner, bet 3 units to win at 25.00, I do expect it to firm to slightly shorter than 20.00 but there is still great value even at that quote.
Place Betting - same horse Soon, absolutely great value, trades at 5.00 for the place, rated 4.80 to win, 3 place dividends, that means massive value. Bet 7 units to place at 5.00.
Lay Betting - Lay Maybe in the win market purely because it unders, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50, lay to risk 4 units. Lay Rubina in the PLACE market, lay to risk 7 units, trades at 2.94.
Good luck and happy punting
I have the 3.35 from The Curragh rated as follows.
Curragh 3.35 7f 61K G2 2yof par8.00
No1 Chieftess 110.00
No2 Lightening Pearl 42.00
No3 Maybe 6.50
No4 Redoutable 11.00
No5 Remember Alexander 5.40
No6 Rubina 18.00
No7 Soon 4.80
No8 Teolane 7.40
No9 Tiffilia 29.00
No10 Yellow Rosebud 9.30
*Market still includes Tiffilia, now scratched, deduction only 35 on my market so no major difference, adjustments to prices above not made.
Win Betting - as stated above the value here is created about Maybe being overbet, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50. The other Ballydoyle runner Soon is the value runner, bet 3 units to win at 25.00, I do expect it to firm to slightly shorter than 20.00 but there is still great value even at that quote.
Place Betting - same horse Soon, absolutely great value, trades at 5.00 for the place, rated 4.80 to win, 3 place dividends, that means massive value. Bet 7 units to place at 5.00.
Lay Betting - Lay Maybe in the win market purely because it unders, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50, lay to risk 4 units. Lay Rubina in the PLACE market, lay to risk 7 units, trades at 2.94.
Good luck and happy punting
Curragh 2.35 - Unexposed Cocozza Decent Overs in G2 Royal Whip
The G2 Royal Whip over 10f (Curragh 2.35) is the 1st race I will preview for the day. Banimpire dominates the market currently around 4/5 and realistically I feel it is unders trading in the red despite winning 4 of its last 6 starts. John Oxx saddles up the unexposed Elusive Quality colt Cocozza with the dam being a full relation to 2 high class 12f horses in Tchaikovsky and Dubai Success. It is the value runner as the clear 2nd elect.
My market is rated as follows for the Curragh 2.35 G2 Royal Whip Stakes.
Curragh 2.35 10f 57K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Aoife Alainn 12.00
No2 Banimpire 3.10
No3 Cocozza 4.10
No4 Dunboyne Express 5.40
No5 Mutahadee 10.50
No6 Gemstone 12.00
Win Betting - Banimpire I have as top elect just as the exchanges do but longer for mine at 3.10, trades at 1.85, this creates good value about my clear 2nd rated Cocozza, rated 4.10, trades at 8.20, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - once again Cocozza qualifies as the value place bet, bet 7 units in the PLACE market (2 place dividends) on Cocozza at odds of 3.20, only 1 point below the rated win price, that represents very good value.
Lay Betting - Well we have Banimpire top elect rated at 3.10, some would lay it because it is trading at 1.85, to put it simply I'm not a fan of laying top rated horses that i have marked up around 3.00 or shorter (this one remembering rated 3.10). SO FOR THIS RACE NO LAY BETTING IN EITHER WIN OR PLACE BETTING MARKETS.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market is rated as follows for the Curragh 2.35 G2 Royal Whip Stakes.
Curragh 2.35 10f 57K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Aoife Alainn 12.00
No2 Banimpire 3.10
No3 Cocozza 4.10
No4 Dunboyne Express 5.40
No5 Mutahadee 10.50
No6 Gemstone 12.00
Win Betting - Banimpire I have as top elect just as the exchanges do but longer for mine at 3.10, trades at 1.85, this creates good value about my clear 2nd rated Cocozza, rated 4.10, trades at 8.20, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - once again Cocozza qualifies as the value place bet, bet 7 units in the PLACE market (2 place dividends) on Cocozza at odds of 3.20, only 1 point below the rated win price, that represents very good value.
Lay Betting - Well we have Banimpire top elect rated at 3.10, some would lay it because it is trading at 1.85, to put it simply I'm not a fan of laying top rated horses that i have marked up around 3.00 or shorter (this one remembering rated 3.10). SO FOR THIS RACE NO LAY BETTING IN EITHER WIN OR PLACE BETTING MARKETS.
Good luck and happy punting.
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