Sunday, 7 August 2011

Curragh 3.35 - Ballydoyle Underdog Has Claims

The Ballydoyle runner Maybe is all the rage in the G2 Debutante Stakes (Curragh 3.35) but I do feel this well related Galileo filly (dam 3/4 sister to 2011 Oaks winner Dancing Rain) is exposed in terms of potential scope for further improvement compared to some of its foes, all in all it is a fairly open race, one of the other Balloydolye runners, Soon (also by Galileo) is the value runner trading at 25/1 in the win market on the exchanges.

I have the 3.35 from The Curragh rated as follows.


Curragh 3.35 7f 61K G2 2yof par8.00
No1 Chieftess 110.00
No2 Lightening Pearl 42.00
No3 Maybe 6.50
No4 Redoutable 11.00
No5 Remember Alexander 5.40
No6 Rubina 18.00
No7 Soon 4.80
No8 Teolane 7.40
No9 Tiffilia 29.00
No10 Yellow Rosebud 9.30
*Market still includes Tiffilia, now scratched, deduction only 35 on my market so no major difference, adjustments to prices above not made.

Win Betting - as stated above the value here is created about Maybe being overbet, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50. The other Ballydoyle runner Soon is the value runner, bet 3 units to win at 25.00, I do expect it to firm to slightly shorter than 20.00 but there is still great value even at that quote.

Place Betting - same horse Soon, absolutely great value, trades at 5.00 for the place, rated 4.80 to win, 3 place dividends, that means massive value. Bet 7 units to place at 5.00.

Lay Betting - Lay Maybe in the win market purely because it unders, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50, lay to risk 4 units. Lay Rubina in the PLACE market, lay to risk 7 units, trades at 2.94.

Good luck and happy punting

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