The scratching of the early 2.50 favorite Al Kazeem from the 8.00 at Newmarket on Friday opens the market right up and subsequently brings about some good value. Roayh looks the class runners and the Godolhpin yard of Saeed Bin Suroor has chosen a perfect spot at level weights for this Speightstown 3yo to resume belatedly after disappointing in 1 Dubai run earlier in the season, the fact it only started once in Dubai suggests something went amiss and this is clearly a winnable affair for it on exposed class with the distance the only real big query.
I have the 8.00 at Newmarket rated as follows.
Newmarket 8.00 10f 7.1K C3 3yo par8.00
No2 Barbican 4.80
No3 Halfsin 8.60
No4 Moriarty 4.10
No5 Roayh 3.20
No6 Slim Shadey 7.60
Win Betting - Ive got Roayh the clear top elect here rated at 3.20, looks likely it will be bet clearly above 6.00 but I do expect it firm into below 6.00 probably closer to 5.00 close to post time, still good overs. Bet 4 units to win.
Place Betting - Roayh is also the obvious PLACE bet in a race offering 2 place dividends, looks likely to trade 2.80 for the place, we know what that generally means from past experience when a selection is bet close to the rated win price in the PLACE market, simply big overs and very good value vs confidence, bet 6 units to place at odds of 2.60+, likely to get close to 3.00 for those who want to risk waiting for the drift before it firms late.
Lay Betting - Halfsin trades at 3.20 in the win market which is ridiculously big unders, Ive got it rated as the clear cut outsider at 8.60 in this 5 runner race, happy to lay Halfsin to risk 18 units in the win market out to a max lay price of 4.20 considering the big advantage we have vs its rated price. Obviously we can also lay Halfsin in the PLACE betting market, likely to trade approx 1.80 to 1.95 for the place (market not fully formed at time of posting), but happy to lay out to a max price of 2.40 considering I am going to advise risking 8 units in the PLACE betting market while laying Halfsin out to those max odds of 2.40.
Potentially one of the better value betting races uploaded so far but still a few more races for Friday UK/IRE racing coverage to be added.
Good luck and happy punting.
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