Last season in this Listed contest (the 6.15 from Tipperary) Sole Power was below par before its shock win over Starspangledbanner in the Nunthorpe at York. I am of the impression we will see a different Sole Power in this renewal of the 5 furlong scamper with the main danger likely to come from the value runner Celerina who is in a purple patch currently on the back of its close up placings in good form races its 2 most recent starts behind Masamah and Margot Did, obviously rating at new peaks it gets in well weighted here vs Sole Power.
I have this market rated as follows.
Tipperary 6.15 5f 26K Lstd 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Sole Power 4.00
No2 Inxile 8.60
No3 Invincible Ash 6.50
No4 Group Therapy 10.80
No5 Santo Padre 13.00
No6 Celerina 5.10
No7 Move In Time 8.60
Win Betting - enough depth in the market to back the top 2 elects for an overly confident value collect across the race. Sole Power trades at 4.10, got it rated 4.00, basically the right price, bet confidently due to good support value in 2nd elect, back Sole Power at 4.00 outlaying 6 units to win, happy to take slightly shorter if it firms due to the value about Celerina early. Also back Celerina to win which trades at 12.00, rated 5.10 2nd elect, bet 3 units to win due to big value making it the bigger win collect for the race.
Place Betting - this race pays 3 place dividends despite only 7 runners due to the scratching of Timeless Call, potentially one of the best value vs confidence bets of the day about Celerina for the place here. Bet 12 units to PLACE on Celerina (3 place dividends), currently trading at 2.70, may even drift close to 3.00 as market gains more liquidity, value at 2.00+ considering rated win price of 5.10.
Lay Betting - In the win market the 2nd and 3rd elect on the exchanges being Group Therapy and Inxile are both unders. I have Group Therapy rated the longer of the 2 at 10.80 and it trades the shorter at 4.70 so it becomes the obvious big risk lay, lay Group Therapy to risk 10 units out to a max price of 5.50, currently trades at 4.70. We can also lay Inxile in the win market but to risk less as the advantage is not as great from a ratings perspective but still good unders. Lay Inxile in the win market to risk 6 units at the price of 5.20, lay out to a max price of 5.50. I do expect that one to drift past that point closer to 6.00 as the smart money comes closer to post time so try to lay early to secure the value. Because i am laying 2 runners in the win market and because there is 3 place dividends in this 7 runner race I am not prepared to LAY in the PLACE market for this race.
Good luck and happy punting.
No comments:
Post a Comment