My Markets for the first 3 races on the card at Gosford on Tuesday read as follows.
Gosford R1 2100m 16K Mdn par8.00
No1 Cross The Waiter 6.70
No2 End Of Time 5.00
No3 Explorer Club 13.50
No4 Freddy 18.00
No5 Lake Eerie 6.70
No6 Oilysam 11.80
No7 Saintly Sun 35.00
No8 Yates Road 6.70
No9 Set The Spinnaker 8.50
Gosford R2 1000m 16K Mdn par8.00
No1 Manchebo 5.80
No2 Maximian 12.00
No3 Rahula 9.10
No4 Ransom Gaze 20.00
No5 Sun Command 14.50
No6 Barbelle 11.00
No7 Catch A Thief 14.50
No8 Conflicting Dreams 18.00
No9 Hussonet Rose 27.00
No10 Banana Bender 7.80
No11 Certain Star 7.30
Gosford R3 1100m 16K Mdn 3yo par16.00
No1 Exceeded 8.40
No4 Caeser's Princess 12.00
No5 Angel Of Mercy 6.80
No7 Hannah Jane 18.00
No8 Misaquiline 16.00
No12 She Goes To Rio 6.00
No13 Syncopated 9.00
No14 Rise Against 14.00
No17 Pride Of China 8.00
Rest Of Field (4more) 16.00
Good luck and happy punting.
Monday, 15 August 2011
Early UK Markets For Monday
Below are the early markets for 5 UK Races I plan on covering on Monday. More updates for each race with betting advice to follow.
My assessed odds and markets for the 5 FREE UK races covered on Monday read as follows.
Windsor 5.40 10f 2.2K C5 0-75 4yo+ par8.00
No1 Halyard 15.00
No2 Edgeworth 13.00
No3 Lang Shining 30.00
No4 Choral Festival 6.30
No5 Urban Space 3.90
No6 Blue Spartan 20.00
No7 Count Ceprano 7.40
No8 Super Duplex 7.40
No9 Colinca's Lad 10.50
Windsor 7.10 1m67y 4K C4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Totally Ours 6.90
No2 Thistle Bird 4.60
No3 Cloud Illusions 5.20
No4 Sure Route 5.70
No5 Rosedale 34.00
No6 Countermarch 21.00
No7 Ela Gonda Mou 10.30
No8 Young Dottie 21.00
No9 Birdolini 19.00
Yarmouth 6.20 10f21y 1.6K C6 3-4yo par8.00
No1 Uphold 2.70
No2 Malice Of Mischief 2.35
No3 Colzium 34.00
No4 Easydoesit 15.00
No5 Ocean's Dream Day 13.50
No6 Imperial Fong 22.00
Yarmouth 6.50 7f 4K C4 0-80 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Vitznau 11.30
No2 Elspeth's Boy 10.00
No3 Rough Rock 9.40
No4 Cloud Rock 5.30
No5 Aleqa 8.20
No6 Ongoodform 10.00
No7 Bravo King 5.00
No8 My Own Way Home 10.00
Yarmouth 7.50 6f 2.2K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 El Maachi 4.60
No2 Climaxfortackle 7.30
No3 Paradise Spectre 11.00
No4 Dictionary 6.40
No5 I Got You Babe 4.50
No6 Bahamian Jazz 7.00
No7 Comrade Bond 29.00
Good luck and happy punting.
Friday, 12 August 2011
Another Punter Profits $2300 From Place Betting Last Week Following My Member Ratings
I love showing you guys the real results I get for my punters. Here is screen shots sent in from another punter who has made $2600 in the last week from following my "member" advice.....Yes, some of my "Member Advice" races are shown on here but I also offer even higher quality race analysis to members. Anyway, this punter follows mainly Australian racing ratings I produce and also the UK but only on days when I rate the betting quality "A+" which is probably once every 4 of 5 days of coverage.
After I finish doing the form for the day in either Australia or the UK I have generally recognized a confidence level in my ratings compared to the real value on offer in the betting markets. I grade this general feeling I develop daily from A+ for very very high confidence through to C-, confidence still predicted but overall depth of value low.
These screen shots are for the total wallet profits, $1379.52 main wallet profit and $985.29 Australian wallet profit.
After I finish doing the form for the day in either Australia or the UK I have generally recognized a confidence level in my ratings compared to the real value on offer in the betting markets. I grade this general feeling I develop daily from A+ for very very high confidence through to C-, confidence still predicted but overall depth of value low.
These screen shots are for the total wallet profits, $1379.52 main wallet profit and $985.29 Australian wallet profit.
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| Main wallet race detail report for profit and loss showing profit of $1379.52 for last 7 days |
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| AUS wallet race detail report for profit and loss showing profit of $985.29 for last 7 days Good luck and happy punting. |
Thursday, 11 August 2011
Caulfield Saturday - I'm Keen To Oppose Bel Sprinter In Race 5
Race 5 at Caulfield on Saturday shapes up as an overly strong sprinting contest and the undefeated Bel Esprit 4yo Bel Sprinter has been installed a shortish price favorite with bookmakers early around the 3.70 to 3.90 mark. Realistically it is being asked to take another step up the class ladder vs some season and lightly raced stakes quality horses who are proven, some with good scope. Add into the mix the wide gate of 11 Bel Sprinter has drawn it is quickly starts to look unders and worth opposing in a confident way.
My market for the 1200m Listed race at Caulfield on Saturday (Race5) reads as follows, only major seen chances included in rated prices listed below.
Caulfield R5
No1 Eagle Falls 8.80
No6 Bullbars 5.20
No8 Gold Salute 26.00
No10 Panipique 6.90
No14 Swiss Rose 33.00
No15 Bel Sprinter 9.50
No16 Utah Saints 8.80
Caulfield R5 No6 Bullbars - decent overs exists about this Snowden trained Elusive Quality 4yo stallion 1st up from a spell, lightly raced winner 2 from 9 who has shown every indication so far in its short career that is it destined to win stakes races, gets a good weight here and in well weighted with a good 1st up record, yard places their horses to perfection, Bel Sprinter being quoted a shortish clear cut favorite early at 3.70 creates good value about Bullbars which is offered up at 11.00 in early fixed odds markets, we feel Bel Sprinter may be a bit exposed drawn out on the 11 alley trying to make it 4 on end, really need to win with authority last start which from a video form perspective we were not really taken by the win vd the class some of the other hold here such as Bullbars (top rated runner at 5.20) and Panipique who represents the Moody yard and has a win over Crystal Lilly 1st up in its CV (2nd top rated runner at 6.90). Back Bullbars each way to win here at the good odds of 11.00. Lay Bel Sprinter in the win market to a max price of 4.20.
Win Betting - 5 units on Bullbars at odds of 11.00, 2 units Panipique at odds of 7.00.
Place Betting - 8 units on Bullbars at odds of 3.50, fixed Qld TAB price.
Lay Betting - Lay Bel Sprinter in the win betting market at odds of approx 4.20 or thereabouts to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 1200m Listed race at Caulfield on Saturday (Race5) reads as follows, only major seen chances included in rated prices listed below.
Caulfield R5
No1 Eagle Falls 8.80
No6 Bullbars 5.20
No8 Gold Salute 26.00
No10 Panipique 6.90
No14 Swiss Rose 33.00
No15 Bel Sprinter 9.50
No16 Utah Saints 8.80
Caulfield R5 No6 Bullbars - decent overs exists about this Snowden trained Elusive Quality 4yo stallion 1st up from a spell, lightly raced winner 2 from 9 who has shown every indication so far in its short career that is it destined to win stakes races, gets a good weight here and in well weighted with a good 1st up record, yard places their horses to perfection, Bel Sprinter being quoted a shortish clear cut favorite early at 3.70 creates good value about Bullbars which is offered up at 11.00 in early fixed odds markets, we feel Bel Sprinter may be a bit exposed drawn out on the 11 alley trying to make it 4 on end, really need to win with authority last start which from a video form perspective we were not really taken by the win vd the class some of the other hold here such as Bullbars (top rated runner at 5.20) and Panipique who represents the Moody yard and has a win over Crystal Lilly 1st up in its CV (2nd top rated runner at 6.90). Back Bullbars each way to win here at the good odds of 11.00. Lay Bel Sprinter in the win market to a max price of 4.20.
Win Betting - 5 units on Bullbars at odds of 11.00, 2 units Panipique at odds of 7.00.
Place Betting - 8 units on Bullbars at odds of 3.50, fixed Qld TAB price.
Lay Betting - Lay Bel Sprinter in the win betting market at odds of approx 4.20 or thereabouts to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
Geelong Previews For 3 Races On Friday
Another Geelong on the Synthetic track is upon us on Friday and as usual I have identified 3 races worth potentially betting into. below are the assessed markets taking in the major seen chances along with detailed assessments of each of the major elects.
Geelong Friday betting information for Race 6,7,8 as follows.
Geelong R8
No5 Al Omghe 12.20
No8 Ebony Rock 9.50
No9 Shelters 4.20
No10 Vacqueyras 5.90
Geelong R8 No9 Shelters - Snowden trained Lonhro 4yo mare and lightly raced having only faced the starter 4 times, totally forget last start effort, 2 back handy Sandown win over Volando who franked the form running 2nd and 1st next 2 starts in town, likely near perfect trip from inside gate and only needs luck in the stretch to win, clearly good scope for more especially being out of the well related Danehill mare Hut, ticks all of the right boxes.
Geelong R7
No2 Swift Sands 10.50
No3 Elite Ebony 9.50
No5 Miss Parma 11.60
No6 Kapcher 15.80
No7 North East 7.40
No13 Noble Twostep 3.80
Geelong R7 No13 Noble Twostep - fairly keen on the Rick Hore Lacy trained Noble Twostep here, good speed pedigree by Stratum out of a Second Empire mare and was a $100K Inglis Premier graduate, good scope for further improvement making a sharp drop in class on back of being beaten only 1.7l into 7th at Caulfield last start for a $70K purse, drawn perfectly in the 6 alley and we expect it to race closer to the pace as it did when 1st up at Sandown 3 back and also when winning at Cranbourne in January, clearly above the level required to win here, we have it rated as a 3.80 chance, next best is North East rated as a 7.40 chance. Noble Twostep clear on top, the one to beat.
Geelong R6
No2 Bold Dazzler 6.30
No3 Eight Ways 8.80
No5 King's Dream 3.65
No8 Speeler 5.50
No9 Bioko 8.80
Geelong R6 No5 King's Dream - hard to go past the chances of the impressive last start winning Elvestroem 4yo King's Dream, putting together a decent record now espcecially over this trip (5starts, 2wins, 3paces), won going away at Morphettville last start on the back of finishing 3rd to Speeler (also engaged here) the start prior at Seymour, definitely has nit a new level since that 3rd to Speeler and should turn the tables on that rival here if it holds the Morphettville level which it should do, we've got it rated as 3.60 market leader with next best Speeler at 5.50, Bold Dazzler on the 3rd line at 6.30, if they bet 11/4 or better about King's Dream it becomes a backable commodity.
Geelong Friday betting information for Race 6,7,8 as follows.
Geelong R8
No5 Al Omghe 12.20
No8 Ebony Rock 9.50
No9 Shelters 4.20
No10 Vacqueyras 5.90
Geelong R8 No9 Shelters - Snowden trained Lonhro 4yo mare and lightly raced having only faced the starter 4 times, totally forget last start effort, 2 back handy Sandown win over Volando who franked the form running 2nd and 1st next 2 starts in town, likely near perfect trip from inside gate and only needs luck in the stretch to win, clearly good scope for more especially being out of the well related Danehill mare Hut, ticks all of the right boxes.
Geelong R7
No2 Swift Sands 10.50
No3 Elite Ebony 9.50
No5 Miss Parma 11.60
No6 Kapcher 15.80
No7 North East 7.40
No13 Noble Twostep 3.80
Geelong R7 No13 Noble Twostep - fairly keen on the Rick Hore Lacy trained Noble Twostep here, good speed pedigree by Stratum out of a Second Empire mare and was a $100K Inglis Premier graduate, good scope for further improvement making a sharp drop in class on back of being beaten only 1.7l into 7th at Caulfield last start for a $70K purse, drawn perfectly in the 6 alley and we expect it to race closer to the pace as it did when 1st up at Sandown 3 back and also when winning at Cranbourne in January, clearly above the level required to win here, we have it rated as a 3.80 chance, next best is North East rated as a 7.40 chance. Noble Twostep clear on top, the one to beat.
Geelong R6
No2 Bold Dazzler 6.30
No3 Eight Ways 8.80
No5 King's Dream 3.65
No8 Speeler 5.50
No9 Bioko 8.80
Geelong R6 No5 King's Dream - hard to go past the chances of the impressive last start winning Elvestroem 4yo King's Dream, putting together a decent record now espcecially over this trip (5starts, 2wins, 3paces), won going away at Morphettville last start on the back of finishing 3rd to Speeler (also engaged here) the start prior at Seymour, definitely has nit a new level since that 3rd to Speeler and should turn the tables on that rival here if it holds the Morphettville level which it should do, we've got it rated as 3.60 market leader with next best Speeler at 5.50, Bold Dazzler on the 3rd line at 6.30, if they bet 11/4 or better about King's Dream it becomes a backable commodity.
Good luck and happy punting.
Early Markets For Seven UK Races On Thursday
I have covered 7 races from Newmarket and Goodwood on Thursday so far and all of the early assessed prices for those races are listed below. More detailed betting advice closer to post for each race.
My rated markets for the 7 races covered from Newmarket and Goodwood reads as follows.
Newmarket 3.25 7f 3.2K C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Amazing Win 11.00
No2 Bashama 7.60
No3 Interaction 4.80
No4 Phoenix City 5.10
No5 Regal Heiress 2.85
No6 Shakira 34.00
Newmarket 4.00 7f 7.7K C2 2yo par8.00
No1 Commissar 4.60
No2 Trumpet Major 2.50
No3 Elkhart 8.20
No4 Dance The Rain 3.70
Newmarket 4.35 7f 10.3K C2 0-100 3yo par8.00
No1 Trade Storm 9.00
No2 Forjaat 9.00
No3 Seal Rock 5.10
No4 Ahlaain 9.00
No5 El Viento 5.10
No6 Sea Soldier 6.30
No7 Sonning Rose 28.50
No8 White Forest 11.50
Newmarket 5.10 12f 4.2K C4 0-80 3yo par8.00
No1 Lexington Bay 4.30
No2 Planetoid 3.00
No3 Franciscan 8.70
No4 A Boy Named Suzi 13.50
No5 Quails Hollow 4.90
No6 Little Jazz 19.50
Goodwood 5.30 5f 2.5K C5 0-70 2yo par8.00
No1 Ocean Myth 2.90
No2 Leenavesta 9.40
No3 Stepper Point 7.50
No4 Dressed In Lace 5.00
No5 Sister Guru 9.80
No6 Russian Ballet 28.00
No7 Sweet Ovation 11.40
Goodwood 6.00 10f 2.5K (3K) C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Dean Swift 3.10
No2 Fruehling 10.50
No3 Knightly Escapade 9.20
No4 Midnight Moon 9.20
No5 Touching The Stars 11.00
No6 Hayaku 3.90
No7 Pani Ash 41.00
Goodwood 6.30 12f 4.2K C4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Trip The Light 8.50
No2 Foxhaven 11.00
No3 Dynamic Drive 10.00
No4 King's Bayonet 8.50
No5 Aldwick Bay 2.65
No6 Rastaban 4.90
Good luck and happy punting.
My rated markets for the 7 races covered from Newmarket and Goodwood reads as follows.
Newmarket 3.25 7f 3.2K C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Amazing Win 11.00
No2 Bashama 7.60
No3 Interaction 4.80
No4 Phoenix City 5.10
No5 Regal Heiress 2.85
No6 Shakira 34.00
Newmarket 4.00 7f 7.7K C2 2yo par8.00
No1 Commissar 4.60
No2 Trumpet Major 2.50
No3 Elkhart 8.20
No4 Dance The Rain 3.70
Newmarket 4.35 7f 10.3K C2 0-100 3yo par8.00
No1 Trade Storm 9.00
No2 Forjaat 9.00
No3 Seal Rock 5.10
No4 Ahlaain 9.00
No5 El Viento 5.10
No6 Sea Soldier 6.30
No7 Sonning Rose 28.50
No8 White Forest 11.50
Newmarket 5.10 12f 4.2K C4 0-80 3yo par8.00
No1 Lexington Bay 4.30
No2 Planetoid 3.00
No3 Franciscan 8.70
No4 A Boy Named Suzi 13.50
No5 Quails Hollow 4.90
No6 Little Jazz 19.50
Goodwood 5.30 5f 2.5K C5 0-70 2yo par8.00
No1 Ocean Myth 2.90
No2 Leenavesta 9.40
No3 Stepper Point 7.50
No4 Dressed In Lace 5.00
No5 Sister Guru 9.80
No6 Russian Ballet 28.00
No7 Sweet Ovation 11.40
Goodwood 6.00 10f 2.5K (3K) C5 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Dean Swift 3.10
No2 Fruehling 10.50
No3 Knightly Escapade 9.20
No4 Midnight Moon 9.20
No5 Touching The Stars 11.00
No6 Hayaku 3.90
No7 Pani Ash 41.00
Goodwood 6.30 12f 4.2K C4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Trip The Light 8.50
No2 Foxhaven 11.00
No3 Dynamic Drive 10.00
No4 King's Bayonet 8.50
No5 Aldwick Bay 2.65
No6 Rastaban 4.90
Good luck and happy punting.
Wednesday, 10 August 2011
Yarmouth 2.50 - Chasing Another Perfect Storm
Great results for the 2 races covered from Ayr on Tuesday offered for FREE on my blog. Today the first race I will post is the 2.50 from Yarmouth, this looks a decent kind of betting race despite the small field.
My market for the 2.50 at Yarmouth reads as follows.
Yarmouth 2.50 7f 2.2k c5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Satwar Laird 3.15
No2 Dashwood 5.10
No4 Here To Eternity 3.15
No5 Yahafedh Aliah 22.50
No6 Cornish Quest 7.90
Win Betting - With Dashwood being so short as the 3.20 fav in early betting it creates excellent value about my equal top elects Satwar Laird and Here To Eternity. We can back both on the pretence we simply have the race nailed, no point trying to split them considering they are both overs. Bet 10 units to win on Satwar Laird at 3.50, Bet 7 units to win on Here To Eternity at odds of 5.90.
Place Betting - back the longer of the top 2 equal rated being Here To Eternity, on offer in the place market at 2.60, bet 8 units to place.
Lay Betting - Lay Dashwood in the win betting market as the 3.20 early favorite, rated longer at 5.10, lay to risk 10 units at odds of 3.20. Also good value in the PLACE betting market to lay Yahafedh Aliah at odds of 3.30 considering I have it rated complete outsider at 22.50. Lay to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 2.50 at Yarmouth reads as follows.
Yarmouth 2.50 7f 2.2k c5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Satwar Laird 3.15
No2 Dashwood 5.10
No4 Here To Eternity 3.15
No5 Yahafedh Aliah 22.50
No6 Cornish Quest 7.90
Win Betting - With Dashwood being so short as the 3.20 fav in early betting it creates excellent value about my equal top elects Satwar Laird and Here To Eternity. We can back both on the pretence we simply have the race nailed, no point trying to split them considering they are both overs. Bet 10 units to win on Satwar Laird at 3.50, Bet 7 units to win on Here To Eternity at odds of 5.90.
Place Betting - back the longer of the top 2 equal rated being Here To Eternity, on offer in the place market at 2.60, bet 8 units to place.
Lay Betting - Lay Dashwood in the win betting market as the 3.20 early favorite, rated longer at 5.10, lay to risk 10 units at odds of 3.20. Also good value in the PLACE betting market to lay Yahafedh Aliah at odds of 3.30 considering I have it rated complete outsider at 22.50. Lay to risk 15 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
Previews Of Ayr 3.30 & 4.30, More from Ffos Las To Come
2 decent betting races from Ayr in the 3.30 and 4.30 which are the 2 races I will be previewing from that venue for FREE to blog visitors.
My market for the 3.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 3.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 She's Got The Luck 4.10
No2 Sistine 4.35
No3 Arctic Cat 4.35
No4 Henry's Gift 6.90
No5 Purkab 9.60
No6 Smart Violetta 19.00
No7 Littlepromisedland scr
Win Betting - top elect she's Got The Luck rated 4.10 and trades at 4.90, minor overs, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same, minor overs about top elect She's Got The Luck but equal 2nd raters only just behind so no major confidence, bet 3 units to place on She's Got The Luck at odds of 2.40, may drift slight further.
Lay Betting - no major advantage in lay betting associated to win market, place market I suggest laying Purkab at odds of approx 3.40, lay to risk 6 units.
My market for the 4.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 4.30 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo par8.00
No1 Spinatrix 4.10
No2 Cruise Tothelimit 5.60
No3 Another Citizen 3.80
No4 Saxonette 12.00
No5 Normandy Maid 8.20
No6 Magic Rhythm 23.00
No7 Monel 13.70
Win Betting - no major advantage in win betting market, no bets offered.
Place Betting - same as win betting market, punters have prices about spot on right.
Lay Betting - best advantage here is laying Monel in the PLACE betting market, lay at approx 3.50, lay to risk 7 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 3.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 3.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 She's Got The Luck 4.10
No2 Sistine 4.35
No3 Arctic Cat 4.35
No4 Henry's Gift 6.90
No5 Purkab 9.60
No6 Smart Violetta 19.00
No7 Littlepromisedland scr
Win Betting - top elect she's Got The Luck rated 4.10 and trades at 4.90, minor overs, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same, minor overs about top elect She's Got The Luck but equal 2nd raters only just behind so no major confidence, bet 3 units to place on She's Got The Luck at odds of 2.40, may drift slight further.
Lay Betting - no major advantage in lay betting associated to win market, place market I suggest laying Purkab at odds of approx 3.40, lay to risk 6 units.
My market for the 4.30 at Ayr reads as follows.
Ayr 4.30 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo par8.00
No1 Spinatrix 4.10
No2 Cruise Tothelimit 5.60
No3 Another Citizen 3.80
No4 Saxonette 12.00
No5 Normandy Maid 8.20
No6 Magic Rhythm 23.00
No7 Monel 13.70
Win Betting - no major advantage in win betting market, no bets offered.
Place Betting - same as win betting market, punters have prices about spot on right.
Lay Betting - best advantage here is laying Monel in the PLACE betting market, lay at approx 3.50, lay to risk 7 units.
Good luck and happy punting.
Monday, 8 August 2011
Nice Lay Betting Results Amounting To $2600+ Profit Last 14 Days For One Of My Loyal Followers
Good to see plenty of cats are winning off my information. Always handy to know the betting information I put together is being used smartly exploiting the best angles and it can clearly be stated from my own personal experience the LAY Bets I identify are very high class and very low risk long term.
Here is some screen shots for one of the guys who lay bets for the last 14 days, July 25 to August 7.
Total 32 bets across these 30 markets for 27 winning trades out of 32, odds that the losing lays were at was 1.85, 3.25, 5.11, 4.00, 2.27
Here is the screen shots from those 30 markets as listed above.
Hopefully a few more of you are cottoning on and working out how to exploit my ratings for the best profit just like this smart cat!
Good luck and happy punting.
Here is some screen shots for one of the guys who lay bets for the last 14 days, July 25 to August 7.
Total 32 bets across these 30 markets for 27 winning trades out of 32, odds that the losing lays were at was 1.85, 3.25, 5.11, 4.00, 2.27
Here is the screen shots from those 30 markets as listed above.
Hopefully a few more of you are cottoning on and working out how to exploit my ratings for the best profit just like this smart cat!
Good luck and happy punting.
Early Previews For Geelong Race 1 through Race 5 on Tuesday
Looks a decent betting meeting from Geelong on Tuesday in Australia. Below are my rated markets for the first 5 races on the card. Early scratchings have already been removed.
My assessed markets for Races 1 to 5 at Geelong on Tuesday read as follows.
My assessed markets for Races 1 to 5 at Geelong on Tuesday read as follows.
Further updates for Tuesday Australian racing will be added later.
Good luck and happy punting.
Sunday, 7 August 2011
Curragh 4.05 - Another Under Rated Ballydoyle Runner
The G1 Phoenix Stakes (Curragh 4.05) looks a very good value betting race with another under rated lightly raced Ballydoyle charge catching my attention.
My market for the 4.05 at The Curragh (G1 Phoenix Stakes) reads as follows.
Curragh 4.05 6f 110K G1 (G2) 2yo par8.00
No1 Frederick Engels 9.70
No2 Gatepost 13.00
No3 Lilbourne Lad 6.40
No4 Parish Hall 11.00
No5 Power 6.00
No6 Reply 4.70
No7 Tough As Nails 8.80
No8 After 48.00
No9 La Collina 16.00
Win Betting - Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O'Brien engaged 2 Oasis Dream colts here and it is the longer one of the two Reply that takes my fancy, its last start 4l space job on Slade Power reads well suggesting it improved markedly on its debut 3rd to Requinto the start prior. Currently trades at 12.00, Ive got it clear on top rated at 4.70. Bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same horse obviously targeted for place betting. Bet 8 units to place on Reply at odds of 3.20.
Lay Betting - great value lay betting race. Lay Frederick Engels in the win betting market, trades as favorite currently at 3.90, rated at 9.70, overall further scope very questionable, lay to risk 12 units at 4.00 (likely to drift in win market). Same horse can be laid in the PLACE betting market likely to trade at 1.60 approx, lay to risk 2 units in the PLACE market.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 4.05 at The Curragh (G1 Phoenix Stakes) reads as follows.
Curragh 4.05 6f 110K G1 (G2) 2yo par8.00
No1 Frederick Engels 9.70
No2 Gatepost 13.00
No3 Lilbourne Lad 6.40
No4 Parish Hall 11.00
No5 Power 6.00
No6 Reply 4.70
No7 Tough As Nails 8.80
No8 After 48.00
No9 La Collina 16.00
Win Betting - Ballydoyle trainer Aidan O'Brien engaged 2 Oasis Dream colts here and it is the longer one of the two Reply that takes my fancy, its last start 4l space job on Slade Power reads well suggesting it improved markedly on its debut 3rd to Requinto the start prior. Currently trades at 12.00, Ive got it clear on top rated at 4.70. Bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - same horse obviously targeted for place betting. Bet 8 units to place on Reply at odds of 3.20.
Lay Betting - great value lay betting race. Lay Frederick Engels in the win betting market, trades as favorite currently at 3.90, rated at 9.70, overall further scope very questionable, lay to risk 12 units at 4.00 (likely to drift in win market). Same horse can be laid in the PLACE betting market likely to trade at 1.60 approx, lay to risk 2 units in the PLACE market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Leicester 3.45 - Open Affair, Potential Good Betting Race
The 3.45 at Leicester looks to offer up some decent value for all comers, win, place and lay. Read on for more info.
My market for the 3.45 at Leicester is rated as follows.
Leicester 3.45 10f 4.5K C4 0-85 4yo+ par8.00
No1 Resentful Angel 6.80
No2 Destiny Of A Diva 9.80
No3 San Cassiano 4.60
No4 Scamperdale 12.80
No5 Tartan Gunna 6.60
No6 Art Scholar 6.80
No7 Follow The Flag 56.00
No8 Minsky Mine 6.80
Win Betting - Fairly open market with the top 5 only 2.20 in terms of odds apart from shortest to longest of those 5. San Cassiano is minor overs as top elect, trades at 5.70, bet 3 units to win. Tartan Gunna the minor 2nd elect has the exposed required form and gets in well weighted to figure, showing signs of hitting that level, trades at 9.00, bet 2 units to win. Back both San Cassiano and Tartan Gunna for a result across the race.
Place Betting - prefer to back the 2nd elect here Tartun Gunna who offers up slightly better value than the other major seen chance in terms of return vs rated win price. Bet 3 units to place on Tartan Gunna trading at 2.70.
Lay Betting - win market lay is Scamperdale, Lay to risk 15 units at 4.60. Rated 12.80, big unders. Same horse can also be laid in the place market to risk 3 units at odds of 1.72.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for the 3.45 at Leicester is rated as follows.
Leicester 3.45 10f 4.5K C4 0-85 4yo+ par8.00
No1 Resentful Angel 6.80
No2 Destiny Of A Diva 9.80
No3 San Cassiano 4.60
No4 Scamperdale 12.80
No5 Tartan Gunna 6.60
No6 Art Scholar 6.80
No7 Follow The Flag 56.00
No8 Minsky Mine 6.80
Win Betting - Fairly open market with the top 5 only 2.20 in terms of odds apart from shortest to longest of those 5. San Cassiano is minor overs as top elect, trades at 5.70, bet 3 units to win. Tartan Gunna the minor 2nd elect has the exposed required form and gets in well weighted to figure, showing signs of hitting that level, trades at 9.00, bet 2 units to win. Back both San Cassiano and Tartan Gunna for a result across the race.
Place Betting - prefer to back the 2nd elect here Tartun Gunna who offers up slightly better value than the other major seen chance in terms of return vs rated win price. Bet 3 units to place on Tartan Gunna trading at 2.70.
Lay Betting - win market lay is Scamperdale, Lay to risk 15 units at 4.60. Rated 12.80, big unders. Same horse can also be laid in the place market to risk 3 units at odds of 1.72.
Good luck and happy punting.
Curragh 3.35 - Ballydoyle Underdog Has Claims
The Ballydoyle runner Maybe is all the rage in the G2 Debutante Stakes (Curragh 3.35) but I do feel this well related Galileo filly (dam 3/4 sister to 2011 Oaks winner Dancing Rain) is exposed in terms of potential scope for further improvement compared to some of its foes, all in all it is a fairly open race, one of the other Balloydolye runners, Soon (also by Galileo) is the value runner trading at 25/1 in the win market on the exchanges.
I have the 3.35 from The Curragh rated as follows.
Curragh 3.35 7f 61K G2 2yof par8.00
No1 Chieftess 110.00
No2 Lightening Pearl 42.00
No3 Maybe 6.50
No4 Redoutable 11.00
No5 Remember Alexander 5.40
No6 Rubina 18.00
No7 Soon 4.80
No8 Teolane 7.40
No9 Tiffilia 29.00
No10 Yellow Rosebud 9.30
*Market still includes Tiffilia, now scratched, deduction only 35 on my market so no major difference, adjustments to prices above not made.
Win Betting - as stated above the value here is created about Maybe being overbet, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50. The other Ballydoyle runner Soon is the value runner, bet 3 units to win at 25.00, I do expect it to firm to slightly shorter than 20.00 but there is still great value even at that quote.
Place Betting - same horse Soon, absolutely great value, trades at 5.00 for the place, rated 4.80 to win, 3 place dividends, that means massive value. Bet 7 units to place at 5.00.
Lay Betting - Lay Maybe in the win market purely because it unders, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50, lay to risk 4 units. Lay Rubina in the PLACE market, lay to risk 7 units, trades at 2.94.
Good luck and happy punting
I have the 3.35 from The Curragh rated as follows.
Curragh 3.35 7f 61K G2 2yof par8.00
No1 Chieftess 110.00
No2 Lightening Pearl 42.00
No3 Maybe 6.50
No4 Redoutable 11.00
No5 Remember Alexander 5.40
No6 Rubina 18.00
No7 Soon 4.80
No8 Teolane 7.40
No9 Tiffilia 29.00
No10 Yellow Rosebud 9.30
*Market still includes Tiffilia, now scratched, deduction only 35 on my market so no major difference, adjustments to prices above not made.
Win Betting - as stated above the value here is created about Maybe being overbet, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50. The other Ballydoyle runner Soon is the value runner, bet 3 units to win at 25.00, I do expect it to firm to slightly shorter than 20.00 but there is still great value even at that quote.
Place Betting - same horse Soon, absolutely great value, trades at 5.00 for the place, rated 4.80 to win, 3 place dividends, that means massive value. Bet 7 units to place at 5.00.
Lay Betting - Lay Maybe in the win market purely because it unders, trades at 2.70, rated 6.50, lay to risk 4 units. Lay Rubina in the PLACE market, lay to risk 7 units, trades at 2.94.
Good luck and happy punting
Curragh 2.35 - Unexposed Cocozza Decent Overs in G2 Royal Whip
The G2 Royal Whip over 10f (Curragh 2.35) is the 1st race I will preview for the day. Banimpire dominates the market currently around 4/5 and realistically I feel it is unders trading in the red despite winning 4 of its last 6 starts. John Oxx saddles up the unexposed Elusive Quality colt Cocozza with the dam being a full relation to 2 high class 12f horses in Tchaikovsky and Dubai Success. It is the value runner as the clear 2nd elect.
My market is rated as follows for the Curragh 2.35 G2 Royal Whip Stakes.
Curragh 2.35 10f 57K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Aoife Alainn 12.00
No2 Banimpire 3.10
No3 Cocozza 4.10
No4 Dunboyne Express 5.40
No5 Mutahadee 10.50
No6 Gemstone 12.00
Win Betting - Banimpire I have as top elect just as the exchanges do but longer for mine at 3.10, trades at 1.85, this creates good value about my clear 2nd rated Cocozza, rated 4.10, trades at 8.20, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - once again Cocozza qualifies as the value place bet, bet 7 units in the PLACE market (2 place dividends) on Cocozza at odds of 3.20, only 1 point below the rated win price, that represents very good value.
Lay Betting - Well we have Banimpire top elect rated at 3.10, some would lay it because it is trading at 1.85, to put it simply I'm not a fan of laying top rated horses that i have marked up around 3.00 or shorter (this one remembering rated 3.10). SO FOR THIS RACE NO LAY BETTING IN EITHER WIN OR PLACE BETTING MARKETS.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market is rated as follows for the Curragh 2.35 G2 Royal Whip Stakes.
Curragh 2.35 10f 57K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Aoife Alainn 12.00
No2 Banimpire 3.10
No3 Cocozza 4.10
No4 Dunboyne Express 5.40
No5 Mutahadee 10.50
No6 Gemstone 12.00
Win Betting - Banimpire I have as top elect just as the exchanges do but longer for mine at 3.10, trades at 1.85, this creates good value about my clear 2nd rated Cocozza, rated 4.10, trades at 8.20, bet 3 units to win.
Place Betting - once again Cocozza qualifies as the value place bet, bet 7 units in the PLACE market (2 place dividends) on Cocozza at odds of 3.20, only 1 point below the rated win price, that represents very good value.
Lay Betting - Well we have Banimpire top elect rated at 3.10, some would lay it because it is trading at 1.85, to put it simply I'm not a fan of laying top rated horses that i have marked up around 3.00 or shorter (this one remembering rated 3.10). SO FOR THIS RACE NO LAY BETTING IN EITHER WIN OR PLACE BETTING MARKETS.
Good luck and happy punting.
Friday, 5 August 2011
Tipperary 6.15 - Sole Power & Celerina To Out Strong Listed Contest
Last season in this Listed contest (the 6.15 from Tipperary) Sole Power was below par before its shock win over Starspangledbanner in the Nunthorpe at York. I am of the impression we will see a different Sole Power in this renewal of the 5 furlong scamper with the main danger likely to come from the value runner Celerina who is in a purple patch currently on the back of its close up placings in good form races its 2 most recent starts behind Masamah and Margot Did, obviously rating at new peaks it gets in well weighted here vs Sole Power.
I have this market rated as follows.
Tipperary 6.15 5f 26K Lstd 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Sole Power 4.00
No2 Inxile 8.60
No3 Invincible Ash 6.50
No4 Group Therapy 10.80
No5 Santo Padre 13.00
No6 Celerina 5.10
No7 Move In Time 8.60
Win Betting - enough depth in the market to back the top 2 elects for an overly confident value collect across the race. Sole Power trades at 4.10, got it rated 4.00, basically the right price, bet confidently due to good support value in 2nd elect, back Sole Power at 4.00 outlaying 6 units to win, happy to take slightly shorter if it firms due to the value about Celerina early. Also back Celerina to win which trades at 12.00, rated 5.10 2nd elect, bet 3 units to win due to big value making it the bigger win collect for the race.
Place Betting - this race pays 3 place dividends despite only 7 runners due to the scratching of Timeless Call, potentially one of the best value vs confidence bets of the day about Celerina for the place here. Bet 12 units to PLACE on Celerina (3 place dividends), currently trading at 2.70, may even drift close to 3.00 as market gains more liquidity, value at 2.00+ considering rated win price of 5.10.
Lay Betting - In the win market the 2nd and 3rd elect on the exchanges being Group Therapy and Inxile are both unders. I have Group Therapy rated the longer of the 2 at 10.80 and it trades the shorter at 4.70 so it becomes the obvious big risk lay, lay Group Therapy to risk 10 units out to a max price of 5.50, currently trades at 4.70. We can also lay Inxile in the win market but to risk less as the advantage is not as great from a ratings perspective but still good unders. Lay Inxile in the win market to risk 6 units at the price of 5.20, lay out to a max price of 5.50. I do expect that one to drift past that point closer to 6.00 as the smart money comes closer to post time so try to lay early to secure the value. Because i am laying 2 runners in the win market and because there is 3 place dividends in this 7 runner race I am not prepared to LAY in the PLACE market for this race.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have this market rated as follows.
Tipperary 6.15 5f 26K Lstd 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Sole Power 4.00
No2 Inxile 8.60
No3 Invincible Ash 6.50
No4 Group Therapy 10.80
No5 Santo Padre 13.00
No6 Celerina 5.10
No7 Move In Time 8.60
Win Betting - enough depth in the market to back the top 2 elects for an overly confident value collect across the race. Sole Power trades at 4.10, got it rated 4.00, basically the right price, bet confidently due to good support value in 2nd elect, back Sole Power at 4.00 outlaying 6 units to win, happy to take slightly shorter if it firms due to the value about Celerina early. Also back Celerina to win which trades at 12.00, rated 5.10 2nd elect, bet 3 units to win due to big value making it the bigger win collect for the race.
Place Betting - this race pays 3 place dividends despite only 7 runners due to the scratching of Timeless Call, potentially one of the best value vs confidence bets of the day about Celerina for the place here. Bet 12 units to PLACE on Celerina (3 place dividends), currently trading at 2.70, may even drift close to 3.00 as market gains more liquidity, value at 2.00+ considering rated win price of 5.10.
Lay Betting - In the win market the 2nd and 3rd elect on the exchanges being Group Therapy and Inxile are both unders. I have Group Therapy rated the longer of the 2 at 10.80 and it trades the shorter at 4.70 so it becomes the obvious big risk lay, lay Group Therapy to risk 10 units out to a max price of 5.50, currently trades at 4.70. We can also lay Inxile in the win market but to risk less as the advantage is not as great from a ratings perspective but still good unders. Lay Inxile in the win market to risk 6 units at the price of 5.20, lay out to a max price of 5.50. I do expect that one to drift past that point closer to 6.00 as the smart money comes closer to post time so try to lay early to secure the value. Because i am laying 2 runners in the win market and because there is 3 place dividends in this 7 runner race I am not prepared to LAY in the PLACE market for this race.
Good luck and happy punting.
Newmarket 8.00 - Al Kazeem Scratching Opens Market Right Up From Value Perspective
The scratching of the early 2.50 favorite Al Kazeem from the 8.00 at Newmarket on Friday opens the market right up and subsequently brings about some good value. Roayh looks the class runners and the Godolhpin yard of Saeed Bin Suroor has chosen a perfect spot at level weights for this Speightstown 3yo to resume belatedly after disappointing in 1 Dubai run earlier in the season, the fact it only started once in Dubai suggests something went amiss and this is clearly a winnable affair for it on exposed class with the distance the only real big query.
I have the 8.00 at Newmarket rated as follows.
Newmarket 8.00 10f 7.1K C3 3yo par8.00
No2 Barbican 4.80
No3 Halfsin 8.60
No4 Moriarty 4.10
No5 Roayh 3.20
No6 Slim Shadey 7.60
Win Betting - Ive got Roayh the clear top elect here rated at 3.20, looks likely it will be bet clearly above 6.00 but I do expect it firm into below 6.00 probably closer to 5.00 close to post time, still good overs. Bet 4 units to win.
Place Betting - Roayh is also the obvious PLACE bet in a race offering 2 place dividends, looks likely to trade 2.80 for the place, we know what that generally means from past experience when a selection is bet close to the rated win price in the PLACE market, simply big overs and very good value vs confidence, bet 6 units to place at odds of 2.60+, likely to get close to 3.00 for those who want to risk waiting for the drift before it firms late.
Lay Betting - Halfsin trades at 3.20 in the win market which is ridiculously big unders, Ive got it rated as the clear cut outsider at 8.60 in this 5 runner race, happy to lay Halfsin to risk 18 units in the win market out to a max lay price of 4.20 considering the big advantage we have vs its rated price. Obviously we can also lay Halfsin in the PLACE betting market, likely to trade approx 1.80 to 1.95 for the place (market not fully formed at time of posting), but happy to lay out to a max price of 2.40 considering I am going to advise risking 8 units in the PLACE betting market while laying Halfsin out to those max odds of 2.40.
Potentially one of the better value betting races uploaded so far but still a few more races for Friday UK/IRE racing coverage to be added.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have the 8.00 at Newmarket rated as follows.
Newmarket 8.00 10f 7.1K C3 3yo par8.00
No2 Barbican 4.80
No3 Halfsin 8.60
No4 Moriarty 4.10
No5 Roayh 3.20
No6 Slim Shadey 7.60
Win Betting - Ive got Roayh the clear top elect here rated at 3.20, looks likely it will be bet clearly above 6.00 but I do expect it firm into below 6.00 probably closer to 5.00 close to post time, still good overs. Bet 4 units to win.
Place Betting - Roayh is also the obvious PLACE bet in a race offering 2 place dividends, looks likely to trade 2.80 for the place, we know what that generally means from past experience when a selection is bet close to the rated win price in the PLACE market, simply big overs and very good value vs confidence, bet 6 units to place at odds of 2.60+, likely to get close to 3.00 for those who want to risk waiting for the drift before it firms late.
Lay Betting - Halfsin trades at 3.20 in the win market which is ridiculously big unders, Ive got it rated as the clear cut outsider at 8.60 in this 5 runner race, happy to lay Halfsin to risk 18 units in the win market out to a max lay price of 4.20 considering the big advantage we have vs its rated price. Obviously we can also lay Halfsin in the PLACE betting market, likely to trade approx 1.80 to 1.95 for the place (market not fully formed at time of posting), but happy to lay out to a max price of 2.40 considering I am going to advise risking 8 units in the PLACE betting market while laying Halfsin out to those max odds of 2.40.
Potentially one of the better value betting races uploaded so far but still a few more races for Friday UK/IRE racing coverage to be added.
Good luck and happy punting.
Newmarket 5.50 - Fresa Unders, Will Drift, Lay Early
The best angle and most confident way to play the 5.50 from Newmarket is by laying Fresa which looks unders as early co fav with Shamaal Nibras, starting to drift longer than that runner now so lay early as it will continue to drift.
I have the 5.50 at Newmarket rated as follows.
Newmarket 5.50 7f 3.8K C4 0-85 2yo par8.00
No1 Shamaal Nibras 2.90
No2 Citizen's Charter 4.00
No3 Roedean 7.40
No5 Maroosh 8.60
No6 Fresa 7.40
No7 Casa Bex 33.00
Win Betting - Shamaal Nibras the impressive last start winner by under-rated USA sire First Samurai (dual G1 winning son of now proven sire of sires Giant's Causeway) looks hard to toss here with good scope for more, clear cut top rated at 2.90, should take the next step, trades at 3.40, I expect it to firm consistently as post time looms, get on now, Bet 6 units to win.
Lay Betting - early co favorite Fresa looks unders despite winning last start, merit of that win questionable when lined up vs a few of these, 3 rated equal or infront of it, trades at 3.60 to 3.70 on the exchanges early, I think it will continue to drift as smart money comes for others. lay to risk 12 units out to a max lay price in the win market of 4.20.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have the 5.50 at Newmarket rated as follows.
Newmarket 5.50 7f 3.8K C4 0-85 2yo par8.00
No1 Shamaal Nibras 2.90
No2 Citizen's Charter 4.00
No3 Roedean 7.40
No5 Maroosh 8.60
No6 Fresa 7.40
No7 Casa Bex 33.00
Win Betting - Shamaal Nibras the impressive last start winner by under-rated USA sire First Samurai (dual G1 winning son of now proven sire of sires Giant's Causeway) looks hard to toss here with good scope for more, clear cut top rated at 2.90, should take the next step, trades at 3.40, I expect it to firm consistently as post time looms, get on now, Bet 6 units to win.
Lay Betting - early co favorite Fresa looks unders despite winning last start, merit of that win questionable when lined up vs a few of these, 3 rated equal or infront of it, trades at 3.60 to 3.70 on the exchanges early, I think it will continue to drift as smart money comes for others. lay to risk 12 units out to a max lay price in the win market of 4.20.
Good luck and happy punting.
Haydock 8.40 - Small Field, Decent Betting Race
Despite only 4 horses lining up in the 8.40 at Haydock there is still decent value on offer for win and lay betting.
I have this market rated as follows
Haydock 8.40 12f 2.5K (3K) C5 0-75 3yo par8.00
No1 Mazagee 3.70
No2 Man Of God 3.50
No4 Singzak 13.80
No5 Lordofthehouse 2.65
Win Betting - Minor overs about top elect Lordofthehouse which trades at 3.20 early, got it rated 2.65, bet 4 units to win.
Lay Betting - Singzak big unders trading at 4.30, risk 15 units in the win market and lay with big confidence, Singzak also a very good value lay in the PLACE market, likely to trade approx 2.00, only 2 place dividends, lay to risk 4 units in the PLACE market.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have this market rated as follows
Haydock 8.40 12f 2.5K (3K) C5 0-75 3yo par8.00
No1 Mazagee 3.70
No2 Man Of God 3.50
No4 Singzak 13.80
No5 Lordofthehouse 2.65
Win Betting - Minor overs about top elect Lordofthehouse which trades at 3.20 early, got it rated 2.65, bet 4 units to win.
Lay Betting - Singzak big unders trading at 4.30, risk 15 units in the win market and lay with big confidence, Singzak also a very good value lay in the PLACE market, likely to trade approx 2.00, only 2 place dividends, lay to risk 4 units in the PLACE market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Newmarket 6.55 - Super Hot Maiden, Big Value In Godolphin Three
The 6.55 at Newmarket on Friday long term is going to shape as a very good future form reference race, plenty of very well bred types engaged. Godolphin looked primed to strike with one of their 3 runners, enough value to back all 3 across the race for a result.
My market for the 6.55 at Newmarket reads as follows.
Newmarket 6.55 7f 3.2K C5 2yo par16.00
No1 Alshmemi 5.90
No2 Big Johnny D 80.00
No3 California English 25.00
No4 Cryptic Choice 16.00
No5 Haymarket 38.00
No6 Juvenal 12.00
No7 Kinglet 5.50
No8 Metalmark 5.70
No9 Most Improved 20.00
No10 Quixote 25.00
No11 Regal Gold 20.00
No12 Wayne Manor 31.00
No13 Wrotham Heath 12.50
Win Betting - the 3 Godolphin runners Kinglet, Metalmark and Alshmemi could be anything on breeding, Kinglet is 6.80, bet 3 units to win, Alshmemi is 13.00, bet 2 units to win, Metalmark is 17.00, bet 2 units to win.
Place Betting - Metalmark likely to trade 5.00+, it is best value, bet 2 units to place.
Lay Betting - Wrotham Heath hard to have as the 3.00 favorite, Ive got it rated 12.50, happy to risk in the win market and risk 6 units. Most Improved 2nd elect in betting at 1.90 in the PLACE market is the Place lay, lay to risk 5 units.
Plenty more races to be added for the night, all evening racing UK coverage
Good luck and happy punting
My market for the 6.55 at Newmarket reads as follows.
Newmarket 6.55 7f 3.2K C5 2yo par16.00
No1 Alshmemi 5.90
No2 Big Johnny D 80.00
No3 California English 25.00
No4 Cryptic Choice 16.00
No5 Haymarket 38.00
No6 Juvenal 12.00
No7 Kinglet 5.50
No8 Metalmark 5.70
No9 Most Improved 20.00
No10 Quixote 25.00
No11 Regal Gold 20.00
No12 Wayne Manor 31.00
No13 Wrotham Heath 12.50
Win Betting - the 3 Godolphin runners Kinglet, Metalmark and Alshmemi could be anything on breeding, Kinglet is 6.80, bet 3 units to win, Alshmemi is 13.00, bet 2 units to win, Metalmark is 17.00, bet 2 units to win.
Place Betting - Metalmark likely to trade 5.00+, it is best value, bet 2 units to place.
Lay Betting - Wrotham Heath hard to have as the 3.00 favorite, Ive got it rated 12.50, happy to risk in the win market and risk 6 units. Most Improved 2nd elect in betting at 1.90 in the PLACE market is the Place lay, lay to risk 5 units.
Plenty more races to be added for the night, all evening racing UK coverage
Good luck and happy punting
Thursday, 28 July 2011
Early Market For 5 Australian Races On Friday
As stated earlier having Thursday off from UK Racing getting in front of myself for a fairly hectic weekend of punting action and plenty of winners and profit for my blog followers. Must admit I find it hard to ignore a meeting on the Synthetic track at Geelong, it has proven a very happy hunting ground for me since that synthetic track was installed. Below I have put together markets and assessed odds for 5 races on the Geelong card for Friday and this marks the starts of our march through another pocket filling weekend on the punt.
My markets and assessed odds for the 5 highlighted races at Geelong on Friday read as follows.
*Rest Of Field quote used in some races below refers to a certain percentage of the field grouped together considered to have very little winning chance as individuals, this technique is used to quickly sift through the balance of what I call the "dead end" of the betting market.
Geelong R9
No5 Lonhrotothetop 5.30
No7 Forays 19.00
No9 Soaring Dragon 19.00
No10 Marsh Harbour 8.20
No14 Ladramahs 4.30
No15 Danzoya 14.00
Rest Of Field (10 more) 3.50
Geelong R8
No2 Rockaway Star 7.60
No4 Livefasy 11.50
No6 Suvarna 8.00
No7 Holy Brom 7.00
No10 Indian Curry 10.50
No11 Spirit Of Sienna 9.00
Rest Of Field (8 more) 3.20
Geelong R7
No5 De Arias 4.90
No6 Ruadhan 6.60
No7 Arch Pegasus 14.00
No8 Bold Dazzler 5.20
No10 Mycolada 11.20
Rest Of Field (8 more) 3.40
Geelong R5
No3 Derisive 8.80
No4 Duluth 14.50
No6 Sweeneys Lane 5.80
No8 The Anchorman 9.50
No11 Southern Beauty 36.00
No15 Bowchickawowow 4.80
Rest Of Field (10 more) 3.20
Geelong R4
No1 Beldarno 14.50
No3 First Empire 6.30
No4 Liberty Shopper 12.50
No6 Rhodehaven 8.60
No7 So Real 7.00
No8 Friday Frenzy 11.00
No9 Gabby's Golden Gal 25.00
No10 Miami Babe 10.00
No11 Nikolaevena 11.00
No14 Lorgnette 24.00
Rest Of Field (4 more) 14.00
If I get the chance I will put together more detailed betting advice per race during the course of the day Australia Friday time before each race jumps.
Good luck and happy punting.
My markets and assessed odds for the 5 highlighted races at Geelong on Friday read as follows.
*Rest Of Field quote used in some races below refers to a certain percentage of the field grouped together considered to have very little winning chance as individuals, this technique is used to quickly sift through the balance of what I call the "dead end" of the betting market.
Geelong R9
No5 Lonhrotothetop 5.30
No7 Forays 19.00
No9 Soaring Dragon 19.00
No10 Marsh Harbour 8.20
No14 Ladramahs 4.30
No15 Danzoya 14.00
Rest Of Field (10 more) 3.50
Geelong R8
No2 Rockaway Star 7.60
No4 Livefasy 11.50
No6 Suvarna 8.00
No7 Holy Brom 7.00
No10 Indian Curry 10.50
No11 Spirit Of Sienna 9.00
Rest Of Field (8 more) 3.20
Geelong R7
No5 De Arias 4.90
No6 Ruadhan 6.60
No7 Arch Pegasus 14.00
No8 Bold Dazzler 5.20
No10 Mycolada 11.20
Rest Of Field (8 more) 3.40
Geelong R5
No3 Derisive 8.80
No4 Duluth 14.50
No6 Sweeneys Lane 5.80
No8 The Anchorman 9.50
No11 Southern Beauty 36.00
No15 Bowchickawowow 4.80
Rest Of Field (10 more) 3.20
Geelong R4
No1 Beldarno 14.50
No3 First Empire 6.30
No4 Liberty Shopper 12.50
No6 Rhodehaven 8.60
No7 So Real 7.00
No8 Friday Frenzy 11.00
No9 Gabby's Golden Gal 25.00
No10 Miami Babe 10.00
No11 Nikolaevena 11.00
No14 Lorgnette 24.00
Rest Of Field (4 more) 14.00
If I get the chance I will put together more detailed betting advice per race during the course of the day Australia Friday time before each race jumps.
Good luck and happy punting.
Wednesday, 27 July 2011
Goodwood 3.45 - Pivotman May Get Under The Guard
Potentially a very big value betting race if I have read the angles correctly. Sadler's Risk, Pivotman and Arch Fire look the major 3 elects for mine and any one of them could win it, enough depth in the prices to back all 3 in the win market for a result across the race.
I have the 3.45 from Goodwood rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K (Lst) C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
From a win betting perspective have 2 units on Sadler's Risk trading at 10.00, 2 units on Pivotman trading at 30.00 and 1 unit on Arch Fire more as a saver at odds of 7.40. All of them are rated clearly shorter than their bet prices especially Pivotman who I have as 2nd elect at 6.00.
Speaking of Pivotman it is the clear big value PLACE bet likely to trade at greater than 7.00 for the place and considering rated 6.00 for the win that is massive value. Bet 4 units to place on Pivotman at odds of 7.00. One of the better value bets of the day.
From a lay betting perspective the actual betting market with favs at 7.00+ means Im not confident to lay anything in the win market. I generally only lay in the win market to 7.00 but no major advantage laying in win market. Best laybet is in the PLACE market in the form of Four Nations, trades at 2.60 for the place, lay to risk 5 in the place market.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have the 3.45 from Goodwood rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K (Lst) C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
From a win betting perspective have 2 units on Sadler's Risk trading at 10.00, 2 units on Pivotman trading at 30.00 and 1 unit on Arch Fire more as a saver at odds of 7.40. All of them are rated clearly shorter than their bet prices especially Pivotman who I have as 2nd elect at 6.00.
Speaking of Pivotman it is the clear big value PLACE bet likely to trade at greater than 7.00 for the place and considering rated 6.00 for the win that is massive value. Bet 4 units to place on Pivotman at odds of 7.00. One of the better value bets of the day.
From a lay betting perspective the actual betting market with favs at 7.00+ means Im not confident to lay anything in the win market. I generally only lay in the win market to 7.00 but no major advantage laying in win market. Best laybet is in the PLACE market in the form of Four Nations, trades at 2.60 for the place, lay to risk 5 in the place market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Redcar 3.20 - Better Than Evens About Top 2 Rated Sounds Good Enough
Decent type of value in this race despite the small 5 runner field. The 3rd and 4th elects in a tight market in betting on the exchanges form my top 2 rated runners. Can bet with decent confidence.
I have them rated in the 3.20 from Redcar as follows.
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K (3.5K) C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Way 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
I have got Mullins Way on top at 3.00 and Royal Hush 2nd rated at 4.40. Mullins Way trades at 6.00 and Royal Hush trades at 5.00. Bet 5 units on Mullins Way @ 6.00 and 3 units on Royal Hush @ 5.00. Playing the race for more profit on Mullins Way.
From a place betting perspective we have to side with Mullins Way, trades at 2.60 for the place, only 0.60 below rated win price, 2 place dividend race. Bet 10 units to place on Mullins Way @ 2.60.
Geat laybetting value about the one horse in both the win and place markets and that is Abhidabidubai. Trades at 4.70 in the win market and 2.50 in the place market. Lay to risk 10 units in the win market @ 4.70 and lay to risk 7 units in the place market @ 2.50.
Good quality betting race...as becomes obvious by the high outlays!!
Good luck and happy punting.
I have them rated in the 3.20 from Redcar as follows.
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K (3.5K) C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Way 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
I have got Mullins Way on top at 3.00 and Royal Hush 2nd rated at 4.40. Mullins Way trades at 6.00 and Royal Hush trades at 5.00. Bet 5 units on Mullins Way @ 6.00 and 3 units on Royal Hush @ 5.00. Playing the race for more profit on Mullins Way.
From a place betting perspective we have to side with Mullins Way, trades at 2.60 for the place, only 0.60 below rated win price, 2 place dividend race. Bet 10 units to place on Mullins Way @ 2.60.
Geat laybetting value about the one horse in both the win and place markets and that is Abhidabidubai. Trades at 4.70 in the win market and 2.50 in the place market. Lay to risk 10 units in the win market @ 4.70 and lay to risk 7 units in the place market @ 2.50.
Good quality betting race...as becomes obvious by the high outlays!!
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 3.10 - Still No Advantage
Had a quick look at this race on my blog last night, still no major advantage.
For the G1 Sussex Stakes I have them rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Frankel still unders at 1.75, not prepared to outlay on Canford Cliffs despite being minor overs, trades 2.68, rated 2.40.
No place market action.
No lay betting action.
More good race soon.
Good luck and happy punting.
For the G1 Sussex Stakes I have them rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Frankel still unders at 1.75, not prepared to outlay on Canford Cliffs despite being minor overs, trades 2.68, rated 2.40.
No place market action.
No lay betting action.
More good race soon.
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 2.35 - "Clean Up" Big Confidence Betting Affair
I must say I really like the 2.35 from Goodwood as a betting race, so much value to be had. I'll keep the opening short and get straight to the betting after giving you the ratings.
I have the runners in this race rated as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Im fairly confident Ive got this race nailed between the top 2 rated runners Rockinante and Red Duke. They occupy 59% of my betting market. Admittedly Red Duke is very minor unders trading at 3.80 but the great value about top elect Rockinante allows us to back both and still have a good advantage across both runners. Between them they only occupy 42% of the betting market on Betffair. Bet 10 units Red Duke to win @ 3.80 & bet 8 units on Rockinante to win @ 7.00. either way we get slightly better than even money if Red Duke wins and just better than 2/1 if Rockinante (top elect) wins.
Obviously from a place betting perspective we should get stuck into Rockinante for the place, we all know how these kind of bets work now if you have been following my blog now, top rated at 3.20 in my win market and trades at 3.30 for the place in a race paying 2 place dividends, better odds the place than rated to win, massive value. Bet 7 units on Rockinante to place at odds of 3.30.
Lay betting also offers plenty of good value in this race, Lay Chandlery in the win market at 4.20, rated 6.80, significant unders. Lethal Force is the big value lay in the PLACE market, trades at 3.00. Lat Chandlery to risk 10 units in the win market at 4.20 and lay Lethal Force to risk 5 units in the place market at odds of 3.00.
All over one of the better betting raceso f the day....but there is a few more still to come my loyal crowd.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have the runners in this race rated as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Im fairly confident Ive got this race nailed between the top 2 rated runners Rockinante and Red Duke. They occupy 59% of my betting market. Admittedly Red Duke is very minor unders trading at 3.80 but the great value about top elect Rockinante allows us to back both and still have a good advantage across both runners. Between them they only occupy 42% of the betting market on Betffair. Bet 10 units Red Duke to win @ 3.80 & bet 8 units on Rockinante to win @ 7.00. either way we get slightly better than even money if Red Duke wins and just better than 2/1 if Rockinante (top elect) wins.
Obviously from a place betting perspective we should get stuck into Rockinante for the place, we all know how these kind of bets work now if you have been following my blog now, top rated at 3.20 in my win market and trades at 3.30 for the place in a race paying 2 place dividends, better odds the place than rated to win, massive value. Bet 7 units on Rockinante to place at odds of 3.30.
Lay betting also offers plenty of good value in this race, Lay Chandlery in the win market at 4.20, rated 6.80, significant unders. Lethal Force is the big value lay in the PLACE market, trades at 3.00. Lat Chandlery to risk 10 units in the win market at 4.20 and lay Lethal Force to risk 5 units in the place market at odds of 3.00.
All over one of the better betting raceso f the day....but there is a few more still to come my loyal crowd.
Good luck and happy punting.
Redcar 2.10 - Fenella Fudge Has The Most Scope
The 2.10 from Redcar looks a good way to start the day, definite race in 2 and the exchanges see it the same way problem is they have the top 2 the wrong way around creating good value about Fenella Fudge which I think has the scope with the appropriate gear change to see it potentially hit a new peak or as a minimum past peaks which marks it the clear winner.
I have this race and runners rated as follows.
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
As stated a race in 2, Fenella Fudge can be backed in the win market at 3.15, clearly good value rated as a 2.35 chance by myself. Outlay 4 units only but due to closeness in ratings of the 2nd elect Daffydowndilly.
Valentine's Gift is the clear lay bet in the win market if it stays at 7.00 or lower, that is the max price I will ever lay to in a win market, rated at 17.00 that represents good unders. Lay to risk 10 units.
No place betting this race, not enough advantage for mine.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have this race and runners rated as follows.
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
As stated a race in 2, Fenella Fudge can be backed in the win market at 3.15, clearly good value rated as a 2.35 chance by myself. Outlay 4 units only but due to closeness in ratings of the 2nd elect Daffydowndilly.
Valentine's Gift is the clear lay bet in the win market if it stays at 7.00 or lower, that is the max price I will ever lay to in a win market, rated at 17.00 that represents good unders. Lay to risk 10 units.
No place betting this race, not enough advantage for mine.
Good luck and happy punting.
Early Assessed Markets & Ratings For 7 UK Races On Wednesday
So far i have had the chance to get through the form for 7 races I have scheduled for coverage on Wednesday for UK Racing marking the 2nd day of the Glorious Goodwood carnival for general public access via my blog which you are currently reading. I have put out the early ratings for these 7 races below and will add further detailed betting advice for each race closer to post time. Initial viewing of whats on offer tells me we are set for a fairly good day with a few big value plays likely to come our way.
My rated assessed markets for these 7 races are as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Bay 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
Leicester 6.10 6f 3.2K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 By Invitation 2.80
No2 Continuity scr
No3 Heartsong 24.00
No4 Jessie's Spirit 6.50
No5 Lilygloves 18.00
No6 Lollina Paulina 8.60
No7 Music Girl 18.00
No8 Picura 8.60
No9 Reina Sofia 8.60
Leicester 7.45 6f 4.3K C4 2yo par8.00
No1 Forest Edge 30.00
No2 Ghost Train 4.00
No3 Gold City 2.80
No4 Rocco Breeze 7.00
No5 Towbee 5.60
No6 Valley Of Stars 20.00
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No11 Argocat 40.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
As noted above there will be detailed betting advice for all of these races added closer to post time. May yet still cover a few other races that I have my eye on for general public access.
Good luck and happy punting
My rated assessed markets for these 7 races are as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Bay 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
Leicester 6.10 6f 3.2K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 By Invitation 2.80
No2 Continuity scr
No3 Heartsong 24.00
No4 Jessie's Spirit 6.50
No5 Lilygloves 18.00
No6 Lollina Paulina 8.60
No7 Music Girl 18.00
No8 Picura 8.60
No9 Reina Sofia 8.60
Leicester 7.45 6f 4.3K C4 2yo par8.00
No1 Forest Edge 30.00
No2 Ghost Train 4.00
No3 Gold City 2.80
No4 Rocco Breeze 7.00
No5 Towbee 5.60
No6 Valley Of Stars 20.00
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No11 Argocat 40.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
As noted above there will be detailed betting advice for all of these races added closer to post time. May yet still cover a few other races that I have my eye on for general public access.
Good luck and happy punting
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Namibian Provides A "Golden Race Read" In The 2.35 At Goodwood
Totally nailed this race.
Namibian advised as one of the win bets, 16 unit profit following my win betting advice.
Namibian advised as a 5 unit place bet paying 2.80, another 9 unit profit.
Slumber advised as the best lay bet in the PLACE market at odds of 1.90, finished unplaced, laid to risk 7 units, another 7.7 unit profit
Total profit from this race 32.70 units.
Top 3 rated runners also finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
As the title says "A Golden Race Read" from every conceivable angle.
That is another great example of why the information I provide on my Guaranteed Ratings blog is simply the greatest ratings information service available on the internet!
Good luck and happy punting.
Namibian advised as one of the win bets, 16 unit profit following my win betting advice.
Namibian advised as a 5 unit place bet paying 2.80, another 9 unit profit.
Slumber advised as the best lay bet in the PLACE market at odds of 1.90, finished unplaced, laid to risk 7 units, another 7.7 unit profit
Total profit from this race 32.70 units.
Top 3 rated runners also finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
As the title says "A Golden Race Read" from every conceivable angle.
That is another great example of why the information I provide on my Guaranteed Ratings blog is simply the greatest ratings information service available on the internet!
Good luck and happy punting.
Sussex Stakes Continues Low Value Trend For Goodwood
The battle between Frankel and Canford Cliffs on Wednesday may well end up being one of the best viewing spectacles of the flat racing season for 2011 but from a betting point of view it is not a great betting race.
For the 3.10 at Goodwood on Wednesday I have my market rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Ive got Frankel on top at 2.10 but on the exchanges it is being bet at unders of 1.77, too short for my liking. Canford Cliffs I've got marked up at 2.40, it trades at that price but I think Frankel has its measure so no value backing the 2nd elect in the market. From a win betting perspective steer clear of this race.
Place betting, same same, no point playing.
Lay betting, same same, no advantage, no point playing.
Surely the quality of bets will improve for the Goodwood carnival as I get through more events there.
Plenty more to be added for Wednesday and dont forget there is 5 races for Australia on Wednesday listed further down that offer up some good value I will cover in more detail with further posts after scratchings for Wednesday are announced.
Good luck and happy punting.
For the 3.10 at Goodwood on Wednesday I have my market rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Ive got Frankel on top at 2.10 but on the exchanges it is being bet at unders of 1.77, too short for my liking. Canford Cliffs I've got marked up at 2.40, it trades at that price but I think Frankel has its measure so no value backing the 2nd elect in the market. From a win betting perspective steer clear of this race.
Place betting, same same, no point playing.
Lay betting, same same, no advantage, no point playing.
Surely the quality of bets will improve for the Goodwood carnival as I get through more events there.
Plenty more to be added for Wednesday and dont forget there is 5 races for Australia on Wednesday listed further down that offer up some good value I will cover in more detail with further posts after scratchings for Wednesday are announced.
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 3.10 - No Major Advantage Seen Here
The 3.10 from Goodwood on Tuesday (Day 1 of the Glorious Goodwood) meeting shapes as a race where I can identify no major advantage for punters.
My market for this race rates as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Ive got Strong Suit on top but it is minor unders, so no win bet there, Libranno is my 2nd elect and trades at a slightly higher price than the rated quote on Betfair but not really enough of an advantage to get excited about. So no advised win betting on this race.
Same goes for the place market, much of a muchness, no advantage there, steer clear.
Delegator the 2nd fav is unders compared to the rated quote of 7.70 and trading at 4.80 can be laid on Betfair to risk only 3 units becuase of the lack of major advantage hence the small risk factor.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for this race rates as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Ive got Strong Suit on top but it is minor unders, so no win bet there, Libranno is my 2nd elect and trades at a slightly higher price than the rated quote on Betfair but not really enough of an advantage to get excited about. So no advised win betting on this race.
Same goes for the place market, much of a muchness, no advantage there, steer clear.
Delegator the 2nd fav is unders compared to the rated quote of 7.70 and trading at 4.80 can be laid on Betfair to risk only 3 units becuase of the lack of major advantage hence the small risk factor.
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 2.35 - Big Value Betting Market
It looks as though that punters have over-reacted slightly to the form around Fiorente for mine. I too have it rated clear cut top elect but no where near the 2.20 that is currently being bet about the favorite for the 2.35 at Goodwood on Day 1 of the Glorious Goodwood carnival. Slumber has also been heavily overbet in my opinion installed as 2nd favorite and that creates great value about some others.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
From a win betting perspective there is enough depth in the market on Betfair to back my 2nd, 3rd and 4th elects at good overs hoping that Fiorente is below par. With this in mind I will suggest keeping outlays fairly small. So back Namibian (rated 2nd elect at 6.20) outlaying 2 units @ 11.00 on Betfair, also back Hunter's Light (rated 3rd elect at 8.40) outlaying 2 units @ 12.00 on Betfair, and also back Yaseer (rated 4th elect at 9.20) outlaying 2 units @ 26.00 on Betfair. Total outlay 6 units for a minimum return if one salutes of 22 units, max return of 52 units.
We have to side with 2nd elect Namibian as the best value vs confidence Place bet, currently trades at 2.80 for the place which is good overs vs the rated win price of 6.20, should really be 2.30 for the place.
Bet 5 units on Namibian to place at odds of 2.80, best value bet in the race.
From a laybetting perspective I feel the best lay bet is Slumber in the Place market, Ive got it rated 6th best at 14.00 in the win market, trading at 1.90 for the place is big unders, lay to risk 7 units @ 1.90. Becuase I am playing the win market betting around the top rated short priced fav I will not advise laying into the win market.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
From a win betting perspective there is enough depth in the market on Betfair to back my 2nd, 3rd and 4th elects at good overs hoping that Fiorente is below par. With this in mind I will suggest keeping outlays fairly small. So back Namibian (rated 2nd elect at 6.20) outlaying 2 units @ 11.00 on Betfair, also back Hunter's Light (rated 3rd elect at 8.40) outlaying 2 units @ 12.00 on Betfair, and also back Yaseer (rated 4th elect at 9.20) outlaying 2 units @ 26.00 on Betfair. Total outlay 6 units for a minimum return if one salutes of 22 units, max return of 52 units.
We have to side with 2nd elect Namibian as the best value vs confidence Place bet, currently trades at 2.80 for the place which is good overs vs the rated win price of 6.20, should really be 2.30 for the place.
Bet 5 units on Namibian to place at odds of 2.80, best value bet in the race.
From a laybetting perspective I feel the best lay bet is Slumber in the Place market, Ive got it rated 6th best at 14.00 in the win market, trading at 1.90 for the place is big unders, lay to risk 7 units @ 1.90. Becuase I am playing the win market betting around the top rated short priced fav I will not advise laying into the win market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Feature Assessed Markets
I have put together assessed markets for the 2.35 & 3.10 races from Goodwood for free public viewing on Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood, below are those 2 markets. Further updates closer to post time for each race.
My assessed markets for the 2.35 & 3.10 from Goodwood read as follows
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Good luck and happy punting.
My assessed markets for the 2.35 & 3.10 from Goodwood read as follows
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Good luck and happy punting.
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