It looks as though that punters have over-reacted slightly to the form around Fiorente for mine. I too have it rated clear cut top elect but no where near the 2.20 that is currently being bet about the favorite for the 2.35 at Goodwood on Day 1 of the Glorious Goodwood carnival. Slumber has also been heavily overbet in my opinion installed as 2nd favorite and that creates great value about some others.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
From a win betting perspective there is enough depth in the market on Betfair to back my 2nd, 3rd and 4th elects at good overs hoping that Fiorente is below par. With this in mind I will suggest keeping outlays fairly small. So back Namibian (rated 2nd elect at 6.20) outlaying 2 units @ 11.00 on Betfair, also back Hunter's Light (rated 3rd elect at 8.40) outlaying 2 units @ 12.00 on Betfair, and also back Yaseer (rated 4th elect at 9.20) outlaying 2 units @ 26.00 on Betfair. Total outlay 6 units for a minimum return if one salutes of 22 units, max return of 52 units.
We have to side with 2nd elect Namibian as the best value vs confidence Place bet, currently trades at 2.80 for the place which is good overs vs the rated win price of 6.20, should really be 2.30 for the place.
Bet 5 units on Namibian to place at odds of 2.80, best value bet in the race.
From a laybetting perspective I feel the best lay bet is Slumber in the Place market, Ive got it rated 6th best at 14.00 in the win market, trading at 1.90 for the place is big unders, lay to risk 7 units @ 1.90. Becuase I am playing the win market betting around the top rated short priced fav I will not advise laying into the win market.
Good luck and happy punting.
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