As stated earlier having Thursday off from UK Racing getting in front of myself for a fairly hectic weekend of punting action and plenty of winners and profit for my blog followers. Must admit I find it hard to ignore a meeting on the Synthetic track at Geelong, it has proven a very happy hunting ground for me since that synthetic track was installed. Below I have put together markets and assessed odds for 5 races on the Geelong card for Friday and this marks the starts of our march through another pocket filling weekend on the punt.
My markets and assessed odds for the 5 highlighted races at Geelong on Friday read as follows.
*Rest Of Field quote used in some races below refers to a certain percentage of the field grouped together considered to have very little winning chance as individuals, this technique is used to quickly sift through the balance of what I call the "dead end" of the betting market.
Geelong R9
No5 Lonhrotothetop 5.30
No7 Forays 19.00
No9 Soaring Dragon 19.00
No10 Marsh Harbour 8.20
No14 Ladramahs 4.30
No15 Danzoya 14.00
Rest Of Field (10 more) 3.50
Geelong R8
No2 Rockaway Star 7.60
No4 Livefasy 11.50
No6 Suvarna 8.00
No7 Holy Brom 7.00
No10 Indian Curry 10.50
No11 Spirit Of Sienna 9.00
Rest Of Field (8 more) 3.20
Geelong R7
No5 De Arias 4.90
No6 Ruadhan 6.60
No7 Arch Pegasus 14.00
No8 Bold Dazzler 5.20
No10 Mycolada 11.20
Rest Of Field (8 more) 3.40
Geelong R5
No3 Derisive 8.80
No4 Duluth 14.50
No6 Sweeneys Lane 5.80
No8 The Anchorman 9.50
No11 Southern Beauty 36.00
No15 Bowchickawowow 4.80
Rest Of Field (10 more) 3.20
Geelong R4
No1 Beldarno 14.50
No3 First Empire 6.30
No4 Liberty Shopper 12.50
No6 Rhodehaven 8.60
No7 So Real 7.00
No8 Friday Frenzy 11.00
No9 Gabby's Golden Gal 25.00
No10 Miami Babe 10.00
No11 Nikolaevena 11.00
No14 Lorgnette 24.00
Rest Of Field (4 more) 14.00
If I get the chance I will put together more detailed betting advice per race during the course of the day Australia Friday time before each race jumps.
Good luck and happy punting.
Thursday, 28 July 2011
Wednesday, 27 July 2011
Goodwood 3.45 - Pivotman May Get Under The Guard
Potentially a very big value betting race if I have read the angles correctly. Sadler's Risk, Pivotman and Arch Fire look the major 3 elects for mine and any one of them could win it, enough depth in the prices to back all 3 in the win market for a result across the race.
I have the 3.45 from Goodwood rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K (Lst) C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
From a win betting perspective have 2 units on Sadler's Risk trading at 10.00, 2 units on Pivotman trading at 30.00 and 1 unit on Arch Fire more as a saver at odds of 7.40. All of them are rated clearly shorter than their bet prices especially Pivotman who I have as 2nd elect at 6.00.
Speaking of Pivotman it is the clear big value PLACE bet likely to trade at greater than 7.00 for the place and considering rated 6.00 for the win that is massive value. Bet 4 units to place on Pivotman at odds of 7.00. One of the better value bets of the day.
From a lay betting perspective the actual betting market with favs at 7.00+ means Im not confident to lay anything in the win market. I generally only lay in the win market to 7.00 but no major advantage laying in win market. Best laybet is in the PLACE market in the form of Four Nations, trades at 2.60 for the place, lay to risk 5 in the place market.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have the 3.45 from Goodwood rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K (Lst) C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
From a win betting perspective have 2 units on Sadler's Risk trading at 10.00, 2 units on Pivotman trading at 30.00 and 1 unit on Arch Fire more as a saver at odds of 7.40. All of them are rated clearly shorter than their bet prices especially Pivotman who I have as 2nd elect at 6.00.
Speaking of Pivotman it is the clear big value PLACE bet likely to trade at greater than 7.00 for the place and considering rated 6.00 for the win that is massive value. Bet 4 units to place on Pivotman at odds of 7.00. One of the better value bets of the day.
From a lay betting perspective the actual betting market with favs at 7.00+ means Im not confident to lay anything in the win market. I generally only lay in the win market to 7.00 but no major advantage laying in win market. Best laybet is in the PLACE market in the form of Four Nations, trades at 2.60 for the place, lay to risk 5 in the place market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Redcar 3.20 - Better Than Evens About Top 2 Rated Sounds Good Enough
Decent type of value in this race despite the small 5 runner field. The 3rd and 4th elects in a tight market in betting on the exchanges form my top 2 rated runners. Can bet with decent confidence.
I have them rated in the 3.20 from Redcar as follows.
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K (3.5K) C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Way 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
I have got Mullins Way on top at 3.00 and Royal Hush 2nd rated at 4.40. Mullins Way trades at 6.00 and Royal Hush trades at 5.00. Bet 5 units on Mullins Way @ 6.00 and 3 units on Royal Hush @ 5.00. Playing the race for more profit on Mullins Way.
From a place betting perspective we have to side with Mullins Way, trades at 2.60 for the place, only 0.60 below rated win price, 2 place dividend race. Bet 10 units to place on Mullins Way @ 2.60.
Geat laybetting value about the one horse in both the win and place markets and that is Abhidabidubai. Trades at 4.70 in the win market and 2.50 in the place market. Lay to risk 10 units in the win market @ 4.70 and lay to risk 7 units in the place market @ 2.50.
Good quality betting race...as becomes obvious by the high outlays!!
Good luck and happy punting.
I have them rated in the 3.20 from Redcar as follows.
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K (3.5K) C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Way 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
I have got Mullins Way on top at 3.00 and Royal Hush 2nd rated at 4.40. Mullins Way trades at 6.00 and Royal Hush trades at 5.00. Bet 5 units on Mullins Way @ 6.00 and 3 units on Royal Hush @ 5.00. Playing the race for more profit on Mullins Way.
From a place betting perspective we have to side with Mullins Way, trades at 2.60 for the place, only 0.60 below rated win price, 2 place dividend race. Bet 10 units to place on Mullins Way @ 2.60.
Geat laybetting value about the one horse in both the win and place markets and that is Abhidabidubai. Trades at 4.70 in the win market and 2.50 in the place market. Lay to risk 10 units in the win market @ 4.70 and lay to risk 7 units in the place market @ 2.50.
Good quality betting race...as becomes obvious by the high outlays!!
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 3.10 - Still No Advantage
Had a quick look at this race on my blog last night, still no major advantage.
For the G1 Sussex Stakes I have them rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Frankel still unders at 1.75, not prepared to outlay on Canford Cliffs despite being minor overs, trades 2.68, rated 2.40.
No place market action.
No lay betting action.
More good race soon.
Good luck and happy punting.
For the G1 Sussex Stakes I have them rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Frankel still unders at 1.75, not prepared to outlay on Canford Cliffs despite being minor overs, trades 2.68, rated 2.40.
No place market action.
No lay betting action.
More good race soon.
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 2.35 - "Clean Up" Big Confidence Betting Affair
I must say I really like the 2.35 from Goodwood as a betting race, so much value to be had. I'll keep the opening short and get straight to the betting after giving you the ratings.
I have the runners in this race rated as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Im fairly confident Ive got this race nailed between the top 2 rated runners Rockinante and Red Duke. They occupy 59% of my betting market. Admittedly Red Duke is very minor unders trading at 3.80 but the great value about top elect Rockinante allows us to back both and still have a good advantage across both runners. Between them they only occupy 42% of the betting market on Betffair. Bet 10 units Red Duke to win @ 3.80 & bet 8 units on Rockinante to win @ 7.00. either way we get slightly better than even money if Red Duke wins and just better than 2/1 if Rockinante (top elect) wins.
Obviously from a place betting perspective we should get stuck into Rockinante for the place, we all know how these kind of bets work now if you have been following my blog now, top rated at 3.20 in my win market and trades at 3.30 for the place in a race paying 2 place dividends, better odds the place than rated to win, massive value. Bet 7 units on Rockinante to place at odds of 3.30.
Lay betting also offers plenty of good value in this race, Lay Chandlery in the win market at 4.20, rated 6.80, significant unders. Lethal Force is the big value lay in the PLACE market, trades at 3.00. Lat Chandlery to risk 10 units in the win market at 4.20 and lay Lethal Force to risk 5 units in the place market at odds of 3.00.
All over one of the better betting raceso f the day....but there is a few more still to come my loyal crowd.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have the runners in this race rated as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Im fairly confident Ive got this race nailed between the top 2 rated runners Rockinante and Red Duke. They occupy 59% of my betting market. Admittedly Red Duke is very minor unders trading at 3.80 but the great value about top elect Rockinante allows us to back both and still have a good advantage across both runners. Between them they only occupy 42% of the betting market on Betffair. Bet 10 units Red Duke to win @ 3.80 & bet 8 units on Rockinante to win @ 7.00. either way we get slightly better than even money if Red Duke wins and just better than 2/1 if Rockinante (top elect) wins.
Obviously from a place betting perspective we should get stuck into Rockinante for the place, we all know how these kind of bets work now if you have been following my blog now, top rated at 3.20 in my win market and trades at 3.30 for the place in a race paying 2 place dividends, better odds the place than rated to win, massive value. Bet 7 units on Rockinante to place at odds of 3.30.
Lay betting also offers plenty of good value in this race, Lay Chandlery in the win market at 4.20, rated 6.80, significant unders. Lethal Force is the big value lay in the PLACE market, trades at 3.00. Lat Chandlery to risk 10 units in the win market at 4.20 and lay Lethal Force to risk 5 units in the place market at odds of 3.00.
All over one of the better betting raceso f the day....but there is a few more still to come my loyal crowd.
Good luck and happy punting.
Redcar 2.10 - Fenella Fudge Has The Most Scope
The 2.10 from Redcar looks a good way to start the day, definite race in 2 and the exchanges see it the same way problem is they have the top 2 the wrong way around creating good value about Fenella Fudge which I think has the scope with the appropriate gear change to see it potentially hit a new peak or as a minimum past peaks which marks it the clear winner.
I have this race and runners rated as follows.
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
As stated a race in 2, Fenella Fudge can be backed in the win market at 3.15, clearly good value rated as a 2.35 chance by myself. Outlay 4 units only but due to closeness in ratings of the 2nd elect Daffydowndilly.
Valentine's Gift is the clear lay bet in the win market if it stays at 7.00 or lower, that is the max price I will ever lay to in a win market, rated at 17.00 that represents good unders. Lay to risk 10 units.
No place betting this race, not enough advantage for mine.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have this race and runners rated as follows.
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
As stated a race in 2, Fenella Fudge can be backed in the win market at 3.15, clearly good value rated as a 2.35 chance by myself. Outlay 4 units only but due to closeness in ratings of the 2nd elect Daffydowndilly.
Valentine's Gift is the clear lay bet in the win market if it stays at 7.00 or lower, that is the max price I will ever lay to in a win market, rated at 17.00 that represents good unders. Lay to risk 10 units.
No place betting this race, not enough advantage for mine.
Good luck and happy punting.
Early Assessed Markets & Ratings For 7 UK Races On Wednesday
So far i have had the chance to get through the form for 7 races I have scheduled for coverage on Wednesday for UK Racing marking the 2nd day of the Glorious Goodwood carnival for general public access via my blog which you are currently reading. I have put out the early ratings for these 7 races below and will add further detailed betting advice for each race closer to post time. Initial viewing of whats on offer tells me we are set for a fairly good day with a few big value plays likely to come our way.
My rated assessed markets for these 7 races are as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Bay 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
Leicester 6.10 6f 3.2K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 By Invitation 2.80
No2 Continuity scr
No3 Heartsong 24.00
No4 Jessie's Spirit 6.50
No5 Lilygloves 18.00
No6 Lollina Paulina 8.60
No7 Music Girl 18.00
No8 Picura 8.60
No9 Reina Sofia 8.60
Leicester 7.45 6f 4.3K C4 2yo par8.00
No1 Forest Edge 30.00
No2 Ghost Train 4.00
No3 Gold City 2.80
No4 Rocco Breeze 7.00
No5 Towbee 5.60
No6 Valley Of Stars 20.00
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No11 Argocat 40.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
As noted above there will be detailed betting advice for all of these races added closer to post time. May yet still cover a few other races that I have my eye on for general public access.
Good luck and happy punting
My rated assessed markets for these 7 races are as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Goodwood 2.35 7f 34K G2 2yo par8.00
No1 Red Duke 4.00
No2 Chandlery 6.80
No3 Elkhart 37.00
No4 Lethal Force 13.50
No5 Minal 23.00
No6 Red Seventy 6.80
No7 Rockinante 3.20
Redcar 2.10 7f 2.1K C5 0-70 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Toffee Nose 91.00
No2 Chardonnay Star 19.00
No3 Valentine's Gift 17.00
No4 Wandering Lad 18.00
No5 Daffydowndilly 2.50
No6 Fenella Fudge 2.35
Redcar 3.20 8f 2.5K C4 0-85 3yo par8.00
No1 Mullins Bay 3.00
No2 Stansonnit 6.20
No3 Royal Hush 4.40
No4 Abidhabidubai 12.00
No5 File And Paint 5.00
Leicester 6.10 6f 3.2K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 By Invitation 2.80
No2 Continuity scr
No3 Heartsong 24.00
No4 Jessie's Spirit 6.50
No5 Lilygloves 18.00
No6 Lollina Paulina 8.60
No7 Music Girl 18.00
No8 Picura 8.60
No9 Reina Sofia 8.60
Leicester 7.45 6f 4.3K C4 2yo par8.00
No1 Forest Edge 30.00
No2 Ghost Train 4.00
No3 Gold City 2.80
No4 Rocco Breeze 7.00
No5 Towbee 5.60
No6 Valley Of Stars 20.00
Goodwood 3.45 12f 24.9K C2 0-105 3yo par10.00
No1 Sadler's Risk 5.80
No2 Tanfeeth 11.50
No3 Halifax 12.00
No4 Whiplash Willie 18.00
No5 Bridle Belle 17.00
No6 Arch Fire 6.60
No7 Watercourse 12.00
No8 Pivotman 6.00
No9 Greyfriars Drummer 30.00
No10 The Bells O Peover 19.00
No11 Argocat 40.00
No12 Four Nations 26.00
As noted above there will be detailed betting advice for all of these races added closer to post time. May yet still cover a few other races that I have my eye on for general public access.
Good luck and happy punting
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
Namibian Provides A "Golden Race Read" In The 2.35 At Goodwood
Totally nailed this race.
Namibian advised as one of the win bets, 16 unit profit following my win betting advice.
Namibian advised as a 5 unit place bet paying 2.80, another 9 unit profit.
Slumber advised as the best lay bet in the PLACE market at odds of 1.90, finished unplaced, laid to risk 7 units, another 7.7 unit profit
Total profit from this race 32.70 units.
Top 3 rated runners also finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
As the title says "A Golden Race Read" from every conceivable angle.
That is another great example of why the information I provide on my Guaranteed Ratings blog is simply the greatest ratings information service available on the internet!
Good luck and happy punting.
Namibian advised as one of the win bets, 16 unit profit following my win betting advice.
Namibian advised as a 5 unit place bet paying 2.80, another 9 unit profit.
Slumber advised as the best lay bet in the PLACE market at odds of 1.90, finished unplaced, laid to risk 7 units, another 7.7 unit profit
Total profit from this race 32.70 units.
Top 3 rated runners also finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
As the title says "A Golden Race Read" from every conceivable angle.
That is another great example of why the information I provide on my Guaranteed Ratings blog is simply the greatest ratings information service available on the internet!
Good luck and happy punting.
Sussex Stakes Continues Low Value Trend For Goodwood
The battle between Frankel and Canford Cliffs on Wednesday may well end up being one of the best viewing spectacles of the flat racing season for 2011 but from a betting point of view it is not a great betting race.
For the 3.10 at Goodwood on Wednesday I have my market rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Ive got Frankel on top at 2.10 but on the exchanges it is being bet at unders of 1.77, too short for my liking. Canford Cliffs I've got marked up at 2.40, it trades at that price but I think Frankel has its measure so no value backing the 2nd elect in the market. From a win betting perspective steer clear of this race.
Place betting, same same, no point playing.
Lay betting, same same, no advantage, no point playing.
Surely the quality of bets will improve for the Goodwood carnival as I get through more events there.
Plenty more to be added for Wednesday and dont forget there is 5 races for Australia on Wednesday listed further down that offer up some good value I will cover in more detail with further posts after scratchings for Wednesday are announced.
Good luck and happy punting.
For the 3.10 at Goodwood on Wednesday I have my market rated as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 1m 170K G1 3yo+ par6.00
No1 Canford Cliffs 2.40
No2 Rajsaman 12.30
No3 Rio De La Plata 36.00
No4 Frankel 2.10
Ive got Frankel on top at 2.10 but on the exchanges it is being bet at unders of 1.77, too short for my liking. Canford Cliffs I've got marked up at 2.40, it trades at that price but I think Frankel has its measure so no value backing the 2nd elect in the market. From a win betting perspective steer clear of this race.
Place betting, same same, no point playing.
Lay betting, same same, no advantage, no point playing.
Surely the quality of bets will improve for the Goodwood carnival as I get through more events there.
Plenty more to be added for Wednesday and dont forget there is 5 races for Australia on Wednesday listed further down that offer up some good value I will cover in more detail with further posts after scratchings for Wednesday are announced.
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 3.10 - No Major Advantage Seen Here
The 3.10 from Goodwood on Tuesday (Day 1 of the Glorious Goodwood) meeting shapes as a race where I can identify no major advantage for punters.
My market for this race rates as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Ive got Strong Suit on top but it is minor unders, so no win bet there, Libranno is my 2nd elect and trades at a slightly higher price than the rated quote on Betfair but not really enough of an advantage to get excited about. So no advised win betting on this race.
Same goes for the place market, much of a muchness, no advantage there, steer clear.
Delegator the 2nd fav is unders compared to the rated quote of 7.70 and trading at 4.80 can be laid on Betfair to risk only 3 units becuase of the lack of major advantage hence the small risk factor.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for this race rates as follows.
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Ive got Strong Suit on top but it is minor unders, so no win bet there, Libranno is my 2nd elect and trades at a slightly higher price than the rated quote on Betfair but not really enough of an advantage to get excited about. So no advised win betting on this race.
Same goes for the place market, much of a muchness, no advantage there, steer clear.
Delegator the 2nd fav is unders compared to the rated quote of 7.70 and trading at 4.80 can be laid on Betfair to risk only 3 units becuase of the lack of major advantage hence the small risk factor.
Good luck and happy punting.
Goodwood 2.35 - Big Value Betting Market
It looks as though that punters have over-reacted slightly to the form around Fiorente for mine. I too have it rated clear cut top elect but no where near the 2.20 that is currently being bet about the favorite for the 2.35 at Goodwood on Day 1 of the Glorious Goodwood carnival. Slumber has also been heavily overbet in my opinion installed as 2nd favorite and that creates great value about some others.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
From a win betting perspective there is enough depth in the market on Betfair to back my 2nd, 3rd and 4th elects at good overs hoping that Fiorente is below par. With this in mind I will suggest keeping outlays fairly small. So back Namibian (rated 2nd elect at 6.20) outlaying 2 units @ 11.00 on Betfair, also back Hunter's Light (rated 3rd elect at 8.40) outlaying 2 units @ 12.00 on Betfair, and also back Yaseer (rated 4th elect at 9.20) outlaying 2 units @ 26.00 on Betfair. Total outlay 6 units for a minimum return if one salutes of 22 units, max return of 52 units.
We have to side with 2nd elect Namibian as the best value vs confidence Place bet, currently trades at 2.80 for the place which is good overs vs the rated win price of 6.20, should really be 2.30 for the place.
Bet 5 units on Namibian to place at odds of 2.80, best value bet in the race.
From a laybetting perspective I feel the best lay bet is Slumber in the Place market, Ive got it rated 6th best at 14.00 in the win market, trading at 1.90 for the place is big unders, lay to risk 7 units @ 1.90. Becuase I am playing the win market betting around the top rated short priced fav I will not advise laying into the win market.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
From a win betting perspective there is enough depth in the market on Betfair to back my 2nd, 3rd and 4th elects at good overs hoping that Fiorente is below par. With this in mind I will suggest keeping outlays fairly small. So back Namibian (rated 2nd elect at 6.20) outlaying 2 units @ 11.00 on Betfair, also back Hunter's Light (rated 3rd elect at 8.40) outlaying 2 units @ 12.00 on Betfair, and also back Yaseer (rated 4th elect at 9.20) outlaying 2 units @ 26.00 on Betfair. Total outlay 6 units for a minimum return if one salutes of 22 units, max return of 52 units.
We have to side with 2nd elect Namibian as the best value vs confidence Place bet, currently trades at 2.80 for the place which is good overs vs the rated win price of 6.20, should really be 2.30 for the place.
Bet 5 units on Namibian to place at odds of 2.80, best value bet in the race.
From a laybetting perspective I feel the best lay bet is Slumber in the Place market, Ive got it rated 6th best at 14.00 in the win market, trading at 1.90 for the place is big unders, lay to risk 7 units @ 1.90. Becuase I am playing the win market betting around the top rated short priced fav I will not advise laying into the win market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Feature Assessed Markets
I have put together assessed markets for the 2.35 & 3.10 races from Goodwood for free public viewing on Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood, below are those 2 markets. Further updates closer to post time for each race.
My assessed markets for the 2.35 & 3.10 from Goodwood read as follows
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Good luck and happy punting.
My assessed markets for the 2.35 & 3.10 from Goodwood read as follows
Goodwood 2.35 12f 28K G3 3yo par10.00
No1 Dordogne 12.00
No2 Namibian 6.20
No3 Fiorente 3.80
No4 Highland Castle 31.00
No5 Hunter's Light 8.40
No6 Hurricane Higgins 25.00
No7 Measuring Time 15.00
No8 Moriarty 28.00
No9 Slumber 14.00
No10 Well Sharp 46.00
No11 Yaseer 9.20
Goodwood 3.10 7f 79K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Delegator 7.70
No2 Balthazaar's Gift 24.00
No3 Beacon Lodge 9.70
No4 Dalghar 12.50
No5 Doncaster Rover 21.00
No6 Red Jazz 9.70
No7 Libranno 5.30
No8 Majestic Myles 12.50
No9 Strong Suit 4.30
Good luck and happy punting.
Early Markets For 5 Australian Races On Wednesday
Here is a few of my early markets for 5 races I will be covering in Australia on Wednesday, basically steering clear of the potential wet tracks in Sydney and Melbourne, so far I have done for public viewing Races 1,2,3,4 at Murray Bridge and Race 1 at Doomben. Just becuase it is lower quality racing than the other main meetings dont for one second think the betting information won't be as good. I dont post it here if I dont like it myself!!
My markets and ratings for those 5 early Australian races on Wednesday read as follows.
*Rest Of Field quote used in some races below refers to a certain percentage of the field grouped together considered to have very little winning chance as individuals, this technique is used to quickly sift through the balance of what I call the "dead end" of the betting market.
Murray Bridge R1 2206m 10K Mdn par8.00
No1 Berlusconi 27.00
No2 Talevic 10.50
No3 Zabrock 17.50
No4 Boolcunda Gold 21.00
No5 Fantastic Reign 11.50
No6 Power To Possess 3.70
No7 Brungle Beauty 9.20
No8 Rechichi 3.30
Murray Bridge R2 1206m 10K C2 par8.00
No1 Regalina 3.70
No2 I'm Smokin 6.80
No3 He's A Houndog 9.00
No4 Six Crownies 10.20
No5 Liquid Nails 13.50
No6 Where'schristopher 4.00
No7 Ambitious Bride 24.00
No8 Harbourtown 58.00
Murray Bridge R3 1006m 10K Mdn 3yo+ par8.00
No2 Pure Dane 3.50
No4 Yankalilla Bay 19.00
No7 Alice Longing 9.40
No8 Amber All Over 11.00
No9 Khalah Rose 20.00
No10 Polly's Garter 11.00
No11 Vulnerable Moment 5.00
Rest Of Field (7 more) 7.50
Murray Bridge R4 1406m 10K Mdn 2yo+ par8.00
No2 Joey 4.20
No3 Kotor 10.20
No4 Our Freed Man 4.50
No5 Ville De Berne 9.00
No14 Mosquetel Rose 12.50
No15 Tapenade 16.00
Rest Of Field (11 more) 5.10
Doomben R1 1200m 13K Mdn 3yo par8.00
No1 Supremeheart 5.30
No3 Hitman Harry 5.30
No4 Halo'd Be Thy Name 4.50
No5 Gordie 6.30
No6 Mr Gifford 9.40
No8 Solar Heart 11.70
Rest Of Field (2 more) 18.00
Good luck and happy punting.
My markets and ratings for those 5 early Australian races on Wednesday read as follows.
*Rest Of Field quote used in some races below refers to a certain percentage of the field grouped together considered to have very little winning chance as individuals, this technique is used to quickly sift through the balance of what I call the "dead end" of the betting market.
Murray Bridge R1 2206m 10K Mdn par8.00
No1 Berlusconi 27.00
No2 Talevic 10.50
No3 Zabrock 17.50
No4 Boolcunda Gold 21.00
No5 Fantastic Reign 11.50
No6 Power To Possess 3.70
No7 Brungle Beauty 9.20
No8 Rechichi 3.30
Murray Bridge R2 1206m 10K C2 par8.00
No1 Regalina 3.70
No2 I'm Smokin 6.80
No3 He's A Houndog 9.00
No4 Six Crownies 10.20
No5 Liquid Nails 13.50
No6 Where'schristopher 4.00
No7 Ambitious Bride 24.00
No8 Harbourtown 58.00
Murray Bridge R3 1006m 10K Mdn 3yo+ par8.00
No2 Pure Dane 3.50
No4 Yankalilla Bay 19.00
No7 Alice Longing 9.40
No8 Amber All Over 11.00
No9 Khalah Rose 20.00
No10 Polly's Garter 11.00
No11 Vulnerable Moment 5.00
Rest Of Field (7 more) 7.50
Murray Bridge R4 1406m 10K Mdn 2yo+ par8.00
No2 Joey 4.20
No3 Kotor 10.20
No4 Our Freed Man 4.50
No5 Ville De Berne 9.00
No14 Mosquetel Rose 12.50
No15 Tapenade 16.00
Rest Of Field (11 more) 5.10
Doomben R1 1200m 13K Mdn 3yo par8.00
No1 Supremeheart 5.30
No3 Hitman Harry 5.30
No4 Halo'd Be Thy Name 4.50
No5 Gordie 6.30
No6 Mr Gifford 9.40
No8 Solar Heart 11.70
Rest Of Field (2 more) 18.00
Good luck and happy punting.
Another Cat Happy With Lay Betting Results From My Ratings
Another cat who has jumped on the bandwagon so to speak since I started giving out some of my ratings on this blog has sent me a picture of his result from his first night of laybetting last night using my ratings and advice.
Obviously being his first day he is trading with a smaller bank than I would usually recommend for laybetting, always remember my strike rate is exceptionally high considering i lay things mostly around an average price of 3.50 to 4.00.
This guy went 6 from 7 on Tuesday from the 7 races I covered and his only losing lay bets was at odds of 2.30
So all in all that is another clear example of why my ratings are one of the most powerful betting tools you will encounter anywhere on the internet. The power of my raw ratings is astounding, coupled with the best betting knowledge on how to stake each market you can not lose long term using my information.
Dont sit around going, "oh but he has only previewed a handful of races on the blog so far so it might be a fluke", .......yeah sure, right, get with the program! No one knows racing like I do, inside out and upside down covering every angle and facet of the game from effects of pace and bias through to top class knowledge of every breeding line around the globe. Add to that a high level numerical intellect and you have access to some serious punting knowledge and power.
Good luck and happy punting.
Obviously being his first day he is trading with a smaller bank than I would usually recommend for laybetting, always remember my strike rate is exceptionally high considering i lay things mostly around an average price of 3.50 to 4.00.
This guy went 6 from 7 on Tuesday from the 7 races I covered and his only losing lay bets was at odds of 2.30
 |
| This punter went 6 from 7 using my ratings for lay betting on Monday, take notice of the odds column!!! |
Dont sit around going, "oh but he has only previewed a handful of races on the blog so far so it might be a fluke", .......yeah sure, right, get with the program! No one knows racing like I do, inside out and upside down covering every angle and facet of the game from effects of pace and bias through to top class knowledge of every breeding line around the globe. Add to that a high level numerical intellect and you have access to some serious punting knowledge and power.
Good luck and happy punting.
Monday, 25 July 2011
Ayr 5.00 - Odin's Revenge....saving the best for last!!!
After looking at the market for the 5.00 at Ayr it becomes painfully obvious that this is definitely the best value vs confidence bet of the day for us in the form of Odin's Revenge. Great way to finish off the day. Rated 2.60, trades at 5.20 in win market at time of writing, for sure it has to firm.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Ayr 5.00 13f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Odin's Raven 2.60
No2 Cat O' Nine Tails 9.00
No3 Boss's Destination 7.30
No4 Forrest Flyer 9.00
No6 Strobe 33.00
No7 Wicked Daze 22.00
No8 Jewelled Dagger 12.40
No9 Mason Hindmarsh 10.00
As an old saying I love goes "Rob your grandmother to back this horse", in other words get it from where ever you can and just keep backing at the very good overs that are being bet. Remember rated 2.60, trades at 5.20 in the win market, bet 10 units to win on Odin's Revenge @ 5.20, likely to firm.
Not often I will advise taking shorter than even money in the place market but the value on offer here allows us to make an exceptions for Odin's Revenge, rated 2.60 in win market, hence value at 1.50+ in the place market, trades strong just over 1.80, big overs in terms of percentage vs rated price, 1.80 to 1.50. Back with big confidence.
25 unit place bet on Odin's Revenge at the 1.80, absolute massive value play vs confidence.
No real advantage in the lay betting markets.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Ayr 5.00 13f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Odin's Raven 2.60
No2 Cat O' Nine Tails 9.00
No3 Boss's Destination 7.30
No4 Forrest Flyer 9.00
No6 Strobe 33.00
No7 Wicked Daze 22.00
No8 Jewelled Dagger 12.40
No9 Mason Hindmarsh 10.00
As an old saying I love goes "Rob your grandmother to back this horse", in other words get it from where ever you can and just keep backing at the very good overs that are being bet. Remember rated 2.60, trades at 5.20 in the win market, bet 10 units to win on Odin's Revenge @ 5.20, likely to firm.
Not often I will advise taking shorter than even money in the place market but the value on offer here allows us to make an exceptions for Odin's Revenge, rated 2.60 in win market, hence value at 1.50+ in the place market, trades strong just over 1.80, big overs in terms of percentage vs rated price, 1.80 to 1.50. Back with big confidence.
25 unit place bet on Odin's Revenge at the 1.80, absolute massive value play vs confidence.
No real advantage in the lay betting markets.
Good luck and happy punting.
Ayr 4.30 - Scratchings Enhance Cuckney Bear Confidence
Cuckney Bear does look super hard to beat here as one of the shortest priced horses all day from all the races ive covered, if not the shortest, rated 2.50, trades at 2.60.
My market is rated as follows for this race.
Ayr 4.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 Cuckney Bear 2.50
No3 Henry's Gift 9.30
No4 Ashgrove Nell 3.50
No6 Purkab 7.50
No7 Playful Girl 11.60
Simply back Cuckney Bear with big confidence to win, trades at 2.60, bet 8 units to win.
Playful Girl is the big unders trading as 2nd favorite at 4.50 in the win market and 2.40 place market, only 2 place dividends, considering I have it rated clear outsider at 11.60 it does seem big unders in both markets and can be laid with confidence, lay to risk 10 units win market @ 4.50, lay to risk 3 units place market @ 2.40 No7 Playful Girl.
All in all shapes as a very good betting race for all of us to dig into with good confidence.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market is rated as follows for this race.
Ayr 4.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 Cuckney Bear 2.50
No3 Henry's Gift 9.30
No4 Ashgrove Nell 3.50
No6 Purkab 7.50
No7 Playful Girl 11.60
Simply back Cuckney Bear with big confidence to win, trades at 2.60, bet 8 units to win.
Playful Girl is the big unders trading as 2nd favorite at 4.50 in the win market and 2.40 place market, only 2 place dividends, considering I have it rated clear outsider at 11.60 it does seem big unders in both markets and can be laid with confidence, lay to risk 10 units win market @ 4.50, lay to risk 3 units place market @ 2.40 No7 Playful Girl.
All in all shapes as a very good betting race for all of us to dig into with good confidence.
Good luck and happy punting.
Ayr 4.00 - Very Big Value Vs Confidence
Not the greatest advantage to be had but those willing to dutch 4 of the top 5 can get basically minimum even money across the 4 of them by staking correctly.
I have my market for this race rated as follows.
Ayr 4.00 9f20y 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 High Resolution 13.00
No2 The Galloping Shoe 7.20
No3 Khandaq 26.00
No4 Musical Festival 7.20
No5 William Haigh 5.00
No6 Royal Straight 17.50
No7 All For You 7.20
No8 Mariners Lodge 6.00
No9 Pestas Pleasure 17.50
William Haigh trades 6.00 on a quote of 5.00, minor overs, warrants a small win bet, 2nd elect (Mariners Lodge) is unders as fav but equal 3rd elects all offer up value aswell.
For the PLACE market the big advantage is with The Galloping Shoe as equal 3rd elect rated 7.20 win market, trades at 5.00 PLACE market, 3 place dividends.
Pesta's Pleasure rated 17.50 win market is the best value lay in the PLACE market trading at 2.40 for the drum to finish top 3, big unders considering rated win price.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have my market for this race rated as follows.
Ayr 4.00 9f20y 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 High Resolution 13.00
No2 The Galloping Shoe 7.20
No3 Khandaq 26.00
No4 Musical Festival 7.20
No5 William Haigh 5.00
No6 Royal Straight 17.50
No7 All For You 7.20
No8 Mariners Lodge 6.00
No9 Pestas Pleasure 17.50
William Haigh trades 6.00 on a quote of 5.00, minor overs, warrants a small win bet, 2nd elect (Mariners Lodge) is unders as fav but equal 3rd elects all offer up value aswell.
For the PLACE market the big advantage is with The Galloping Shoe as equal 3rd elect rated 7.20 win market, trades at 5.00 PLACE market, 3 place dividends.
Pesta's Pleasure rated 17.50 win market is the best value lay in the PLACE market trading at 2.40 for the drum to finish top 3, big unders considering rated win price.
Good luck and happy punting.
Yarmouth 3.15 - Race with Strong Advantage Equals Good Confidence
This may end up being one of the better value vs confidence betting races of the day the 3.15 from Yarmouth. There is enough depth in the prices to back our top 2 rated horses for a result across the race.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Yarmouth 3.15 6f 4K c4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Victoria Bounty 6.80
No2 Ceremonial Jade 3.70
No3 Ursula 5.30
No4 Seek The Fair Land 4.80
No6 Greyfriarschorista 9.30
No7 Miss Polly Plum 11.20
My market for this race reads as follows.
Yarmouth 3.15 6f 4K c4 0-85 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Victoria Bounty 6.80
No2 Ceremonial Jade 3.70
No3 Ursula 5.30
No4 Seek The Fair Land 4.80
No6 Greyfriarschorista 9.30
No7 Miss Polly Plum 11.20
I have Ceremonial Jade on top rated at 3.70, can be backed at 9.60, I have Seek The Fair Land rated 2nd at 4.80 but a minimum clear point behind Ceremonial Jade, it can also be backed same outlay at 5.00.
Yarmouth 3.15, win bets on both No2 Ceremonial Jade & No4 Seek The Fair Land outlaying 3 units on each one of them.
For place betting the big value is obviously Ceremonial Jade, being offered at 4.20 in the place market, only 2 place dividends, but PLAce price on offer is better than rated win market price of 3.70, as stated previously in my posts, that means big value, even better when it is the Top Elect rated horse we are talking about.
One of the big value bets of the day vs confidence then becomes
Yarmouth 3.15 No2 Ceremonial Jade - 6 unit PLACE bet @ 4.20.
Lay Betting - the obvious big value lay betting commodity here is the slightly drifting favorite, Greyfriarschorista which can be laid at 3.90 in the win market and 2.20 in the place market, big unders in both considering I have it rated at 9.30, lay in both markets with big confidence, risk 10 units win market @ 3.90 and 5 units place market @ 2.20.
Good luck and happy punting.
Ayr 3.00 - Questionnaire Slight Unders But Value In Equal 2nd Rated Horses
Questionnaire has drifted slightly in betting from 3.20 out to 3.50 but is still slight unders as I have it rated at 4.00, value currently exists about the equal 2nd elects and they are the ones that deserve minor support.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Ayr 3.00 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Apache Ridge 6.00
No2 Speed Dream 6.00
No3 Questionnaire 4.00
No4 Beckermet 9.00
No5 North Central 16.00
No6 Chambers 13.00
No7 Royal Blade 13.00
No8 Distant Sun 33.00
No9 Weetentherty 16.00
Apache Ridge and Speed Dream are equal 2nd rated at 6.00, they trade at 7.40 Apache Ridge and 30.00 Speed Dream, back them both for a minor win outlay weighting price say 2 units Apache Ridge and 1 unit Speed Dream.
Place betting obviously the big value here is with Speed Dream, being offered up at 6.60 for the place, may drift to 7.00, in a market paying 3 place dividends, getting better odds for the place than the rated win market price of 6.00, that always is a huge value bet.
Speed Dream 3 unit place bet @ 6.60 in the PLACE market.
Lay Betting should revolve around Royal Blade which I have rated at 13.00 in the win market, can be laid at 2.20 to 2.30 in the PLACE market, big unders considering it is rated so long in the market.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for this race reads as follows.
Ayr 3.00 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Apache Ridge 6.00
No2 Speed Dream 6.00
No3 Questionnaire 4.00
No4 Beckermet 9.00
No5 North Central 16.00
No6 Chambers 13.00
No7 Royal Blade 13.00
No8 Distant Sun 33.00
No9 Weetentherty 16.00
Apache Ridge and Speed Dream are equal 2nd rated at 6.00, they trade at 7.40 Apache Ridge and 30.00 Speed Dream, back them both for a minor win outlay weighting price say 2 units Apache Ridge and 1 unit Speed Dream.
Place betting obviously the big value here is with Speed Dream, being offered up at 6.60 for the place, may drift to 7.00, in a market paying 3 place dividends, getting better odds for the place than the rated win market price of 6.00, that always is a huge value bet.
Speed Dream 3 unit place bet @ 6.60 in the PLACE market.
Lay Betting should revolve around Royal Blade which I have rated at 13.00 in the win market, can be laid at 2.20 to 2.30 in the PLACE market, big unders considering it is rated so long in the market.
Good luck and happy punting.
Yarmouth 2.45 - Red Hearts Looks 1st Good Thing For Monday
The 2.45 from Yarmouth looks a perfect opportunity for Red Hearts to justify favoratism on Betfair, currently trades at 3.20, I have it rated at 2.75, decent overs about a high confidence win bet. When I rate them below 3.00 they have a very high win strike rate.
My market reads as follows
Yarmouth 2.45 6f 1.6K C6 2yo par8.00
No1 Very First Blade 12.60
No2 King Kenobi 20.50
No3 Little Ted 9.50
No4 Masters Club 32.00
No5 Red Hearts 2.75
No7 Concordia Notte 6.30
No8 Miss Medici 7.90
No9 Speedi Mouse 11.00
Win Betting
Clear cut top elect Red Hearts as mentioned above is the big confidence win bet, back now at 3.20, I expect it to firm to shorter than 3.00 when the smart money comes late. Rated at 2.75.
Yarmouth 2.45 No5 Red Hearts - 7 unit win bet @ 3.20.
Place Betting
No real advantage for place betting
Lay Betting
Concordia Notte trades at 3.80, Ive got it rated at 6.30 but note...as 2nd elect, so keep lay bet small and dont lay out past the 4.00 mark.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market reads as follows
Yarmouth 2.45 6f 1.6K C6 2yo par8.00
No1 Very First Blade 12.60
No2 King Kenobi 20.50
No3 Little Ted 9.50
No4 Masters Club 32.00
No5 Red Hearts 2.75
No7 Concordia Notte 6.30
No8 Miss Medici 7.90
No9 Speedi Mouse 11.00
Win Betting
Clear cut top elect Red Hearts as mentioned above is the big confidence win bet, back now at 3.20, I expect it to firm to shorter than 3.00 when the smart money comes late. Rated at 2.75.
Yarmouth 2.45 No5 Red Hearts - 7 unit win bet @ 3.20.
Place Betting
No real advantage for place betting
Lay Betting
Concordia Notte trades at 3.80, Ive got it rated at 6.30 but note...as 2nd elect, so keep lay bet small and dont lay out past the 4.00 mark.
Good luck and happy punting.
Ayr 2.30 - No Change, My Pearl Lay still best option
As per my advice earlier in the day the best betting option in the 2.30 from Ayr is still to lay My Pearl standing solid currently at 5.00 on Betfair.
My rated market is as follows
Ayr 2.30 6f 2.3K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 My Pearl 8.60
No2 Professor Tim 32.00
No3 Samba Night 4.80
No4 Star City 2.65
No5 Cafe Express 12.50
No6 Sonsie Lass 7.00
No7 Well Wishes 19.00
Star City is the clear cut top elect for mine rated at 2.65 but trades slightly short of that price at 2.30 currently, so no advantage in win betting market but Laybetting still offers a return.
Lay My Pearl at 5.00 after being rated 4th elect at 8.60.
Good luck and happy punting.
My rated market is as follows
Ayr 2.30 6f 2.3K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 My Pearl 8.60
No2 Professor Tim 32.00
No3 Samba Night 4.80
No4 Star City 2.65
No5 Cafe Express 12.50
No6 Sonsie Lass 7.00
No7 Well Wishes 19.00
Star City is the clear cut top elect for mine rated at 2.65 but trades slightly short of that price at 2.30 currently, so no advantage in win betting market but Laybetting still offers a return.
Lay My Pearl at 5.00 after being rated 4th elect at 8.60.
Good luck and happy punting.
More Early Markets For Ayr 4.30 & 5.00
Here is a few more of my early markets for the 4.30 and 5.00 from Ayr on Monday, both have the potential to shape up as very good confidence betting races for us.
My markets are rated as follows for these 2 races.
Ayr 4.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 Cuckney Bear 3.40
No2 Arctic Cat 5.90
No3 Henry's Gift 12.50
No4 Ashgrove Nell 4.60
No5 See The Storm 12.50
No6 Purkab 10.00
No7 Playful Girl 15.50
Ayr 5.00 13f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Odin's Raven 2.70
No2 Cat O' Nine Tails 9.50
No3 Boss's Destination 7.70
No4 Forrest Flyer 9.50
No5 Royal Jet 19.00
No6 Strobe 35.00
No7 Wicked Daze 24.00
No8 Jewelled Dagger 13.00
No9 Mason Hindmarsh 10.50
More detailed preview with betting advice later on about 1-2 hours before jump time for each.
Good luck and happy punting.
My markets are rated as follows for these 2 races.
Ayr 4.30 10f 2.5K C6 0-65 3yo par8.00
No1 Cuckney Bear 3.40
No2 Arctic Cat 5.90
No3 Henry's Gift 12.50
No4 Ashgrove Nell 4.60
No5 See The Storm 12.50
No6 Purkab 10.00
No7 Playful Girl 15.50
Ayr 5.00 13f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Odin's Raven 2.70
No2 Cat O' Nine Tails 9.50
No3 Boss's Destination 7.70
No4 Forrest Flyer 9.50
No5 Royal Jet 19.00
No6 Strobe 35.00
No7 Wicked Daze 24.00
No8 Jewelled Dagger 13.00
No9 Mason Hindmarsh 10.50
More detailed preview with betting advice later on about 1-2 hours before jump time for each.
Good luck and happy punting.
2 More Early Markets For Ayr On Monday
Not enough money formed yet to get a true indication on where advantage in the 3.00 & 4.00 races from Ayr but here is my early assessed markets
My markets for these 2 races reads as follows.
Ayr 3.00 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Apache Ridge 6.00
No2 Speed Dream 6.00
No3 Questionnaire 4.00
No4 Beckermet 9.00
No5 North Central 16.00
No6 Chambers 13.00
No7 Royal Blade 13.00
No8 Distant Sun 33.00
No9 Weetentherty 16.00
Ayr 4.00 9f20y 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 High Resolution 13.00
No2 The Galloping Shoe 7.20
No3 Khandaq 26.00
No4 Musical Festival 7.20
No5 William Haigh 5.00
No6 Royal Straight 17.50
No7 All For You 7.20
No8 Mariners Lodge 6.00
No9 Pestas Pleasure 17.50
Further updates on betting for these races in a few more hours.
Still plenty more to come for the day. Lets crack a strong start for the new punting week!
Good luck and happy punting.
My markets for these 2 races reads as follows.
Ayr 3.00 6f 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Apache Ridge 6.00
No2 Speed Dream 6.00
No3 Questionnaire 4.00
No4 Beckermet 9.00
No5 North Central 16.00
No6 Chambers 13.00
No7 Royal Blade 13.00
No8 Distant Sun 33.00
No9 Weetentherty 16.00
Ayr 4.00 9f20y 4.2K C5 0-75 3yo+ par8.00
No1 High Resolution 13.00
No2 The Galloping Shoe 7.20
No3 Khandaq 26.00
No4 Musical Festival 7.20
No5 William Haigh 5.00
No6 Royal Straight 17.50
No7 All For You 7.20
No8 Mariners Lodge 6.00
No9 Pestas Pleasure 17.50
Further updates on betting for these races in a few more hours.
Still plenty more to come for the day. Lets crack a strong start for the new punting week!
Good luck and happy punting.
Ayr 2.30 - My Pearl Bet Unders Early
Monday UK racing coverage will see me concentrate on the meetings at Ayr & Yarmouth mainly and potentially a bit of action from Windsor and Galway in Ireland will be included.
I kick off with the 2.30 at Ayr, the advantage is really with the lay betting market for mine. My Pearl is being bet at significant unders early.
My markets is rated as follows.
Ayr 2.30 6f 2.3K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 My Pearl 8.60
No2 Professor Tim 32.00
No3 Samba Night 4.80
No4 Star City 2.65
No5 Cafe Express 12.50
No6 Sonsie Lass 7.00
No7 Well Wishes 19.00
In the Betfair market My Pearl is being bet between 3.80 and 4.50 early which is considerable unders when looking at my rated price of 8.60 4th elect.
That is the best advantage anywhere in the race, it can also be layed in the PLACE market aswell being 4th elect in a race paying only 2 place dividends.
No real win betting or place betting action for this race.
More good opportunities will be had during the day that is for sure but this is a nice teaser into what should be a good betting day.
Good luck and happy punting.
I kick off with the 2.30 at Ayr, the advantage is really with the lay betting market for mine. My Pearl is being bet at significant unders early.
My markets is rated as follows.
Ayr 2.30 6f 2.3K C5 2yo par8.00
No1 My Pearl 8.60
No2 Professor Tim 32.00
No3 Samba Night 4.80
No4 Star City 2.65
No5 Cafe Express 12.50
No6 Sonsie Lass 7.00
No7 Well Wishes 19.00
In the Betfair market My Pearl is being bet between 3.80 and 4.50 early which is considerable unders when looking at my rated price of 8.60 4th elect.
That is the best advantage anywhere in the race, it can also be layed in the PLACE market aswell being 4th elect in a race paying only 2 place dividends.
No real win betting or place betting action for this race.
More good opportunities will be had during the day that is for sure but this is a nice teaser into what should be a good betting day.
Good luck and happy punting.
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Ascot 2.40 - Advised Big Confidence And Nailed From All Sides
Another big confidence betting race totally nailed to the wall.
Angels Will Fall advised as a 5 unit place bet at 8.00 in a race total outlay of 15 units salutes, profit 25 units in the win market
Angels Will Fall also advised as the value PLACE bet at 2.80+.
Russelliana advised the value lay, rated 3rd elect 4.70 and traded 2.10....nowhere.
Angels Will Fall advised as a 5 unit place bet at 8.00 in a race total outlay of 15 units salutes, profit 25 units in the win market
Angels Will Fall also advised as the value PLACE bet at 2.80+.
Russelliana advised the value lay, rated 3rd elect 4.70 and traded 2.10....nowhere.
Ascot 4.30 - Workforce Definite Unders
The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes G1 is the feature race on the cards for in the Uk on Saturday and once again a "name" has been overbet, this happens all the time with what we call "people's champions" and Workforce definitely fits that mould after winning the Arc last season, this years middle distance division is very strong and coupled with the fact I feel it is a very strong year for 3yo stayers (near vintage like!) then Nathaniel is every hope of developing into a top class G1 middle distance horse, if so that makes Workforce even more vulnerable than I have it rated (3rd elect at 4.40)
My rated market reads as follows.
Ascot 4.30 12f 603K G1 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Debussy 140.00
No2 Rewilding 3.70
No3 St Nicholas Abbey 3.40
No4 Workforce 4.40
No5 Nathaniel 4.80
St Nicholas Abbey this season looks back to its dominant 2yo form which had it pinned as a superstar, that would have converted into stronger 3yo form than Workforce showed from his stellar 3yo season, Rewilding also has the edge on Workforce through the So You Think formline. Nathaniel could be anything in a super strong year for 3yo's. A few questions to answer for the exposed Workforce.
So in this small market we can unleash with decent confidence on St Nicholas Abbey trading at 5.00 (rated 3.40 minor top elect) and also Nathaniel who is the "scope" horse, trading at 7.60, rated close to top elect 4th at 4.80, scope suggests may well be better therefore have to include.
St Nicholas Abbey is the big value hard to oppose PLACE bet trading at 2.30 in the place market, nice overs, I think it should be approx 1.85.
The value lay bet is simply Workforce as discussed above has a fair few questions to answer as a clear cut top betting elect at 2.30. Lay in the win market with decent confidence that one of the other 3 major players in the market under 9/1 will turn Workforce back at the business end.
Good luck and happy punting.
My rated market reads as follows.
Ascot 4.30 12f 603K G1 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Debussy 140.00
No2 Rewilding 3.70
No3 St Nicholas Abbey 3.40
No4 Workforce 4.40
No5 Nathaniel 4.80
St Nicholas Abbey this season looks back to its dominant 2yo form which had it pinned as a superstar, that would have converted into stronger 3yo form than Workforce showed from his stellar 3yo season, Rewilding also has the edge on Workforce through the So You Think formline. Nathaniel could be anything in a super strong year for 3yo's. A few questions to answer for the exposed Workforce.
So in this small market we can unleash with decent confidence on St Nicholas Abbey trading at 5.00 (rated 3.40 minor top elect) and also Nathaniel who is the "scope" horse, trading at 7.60, rated close to top elect 4th at 4.80, scope suggests may well be better therefore have to include.
St Nicholas Abbey is the big value hard to oppose PLACE bet trading at 2.30 in the place market, nice overs, I think it should be approx 1.85.
The value lay bet is simply Workforce as discussed above has a fair few questions to answer as a clear cut top betting elect at 2.30. Lay in the win market with decent confidence that one of the other 3 major players in the market under 9/1 will turn Workforce back at the business end.
Good luck and happy punting.
Good Catch Pearl Catcher In The 2.25 at Newcastle
We rated the winner approx the traded price and advised that the odds on short priced fav Marching On was definite unders at 1.65 on Betfair, we had it rated significantly longer at 2.00 but still clear on top.
We identified the value lay bet and best option for the race as PEARL CATCHER in the PLACe betting market, nailed to the wall trading below 3.30.
We identified the value lay bet and best option for the race as PEARL CATCHER in the PLACe betting market, nailed to the wall trading below 3.30.
Newmarket 3.55 - Dive As Deep As You Can Into The Magic City
Great value betting race and a good class affair at that.
I have my market rated as follows.
Newmarket 3.55 6f 7.7K C3 2yo par8.00
No1 Magic City 3.60
No2 Monnoyer 8.90
No3 Radiomarelli 5.60
No4 Springinmystep 11.00
No5 Weat Leake Diman 7.90
No6 Sovereign Debt 4.50
Magic City when at best is clearly the pick on form of this lot and under the conditions and tag drop looks very much capable of hitting a near peak level again here, if so it wins.
Ive got it rated 3.60, it has been nibbled at already into 5.60, good value still exists in the win market, good confidence vs value win bet as the proven clear cut top elect here.
Obviously Magical City is also a MASSIVE value place bet here in a market paying 1/2 place dividends, currently trades at 2.60 for the place, silly overs!!!, lump on big time as one of the big confidence value bets of the day.
No real lay betting action / value to speak of here to steering clear this race on that front.
Good luck and happy punting.
I have my market rated as follows.
Newmarket 3.55 6f 7.7K C3 2yo par8.00
No1 Magic City 3.60
No2 Monnoyer 8.90
No3 Radiomarelli 5.60
No4 Springinmystep 11.00
No5 Weat Leake Diman 7.90
No6 Sovereign Debt 4.50
Magic City when at best is clearly the pick on form of this lot and under the conditions and tag drop looks very much capable of hitting a near peak level again here, if so it wins.
Ive got it rated 3.60, it has been nibbled at already into 5.60, good value still exists in the win market, good confidence vs value win bet as the proven clear cut top elect here.
Obviously Magical City is also a MASSIVE value place bet here in a market paying 1/2 place dividends, currently trades at 2.60 for the place, silly overs!!!, lump on big time as one of the big confidence value bets of the day.
No real lay betting action / value to speak of here to steering clear this race on that front.
Good luck and happy punting.
Ascot 2.05 - Nailed THAT To The Wall From Every Conceivable Angle
totally nailed the 2.05 from ascot from every advised angle possible, top 2 rated advised as win bets run 1/2, top rated advised as big value place bet runs 2nd at good overs
....ooohhh and lay bets for the race fire too, simply a perfect market read, plenty more to come for the day.
More happy punting to come punters, follow and cream up with triple extra cream as the day progresses, quick fire hot betting across the first 1.5 hours of the day and then a few gems including a great read of the King George!
....ooohhh and lay bets for the race fire too, simply a perfect market read, plenty more to come for the day.
More happy punting to come punters, follow and cream up with triple extra cream as the day progresses, quick fire hot betting across the first 1.5 hours of the day and then a few gems including a great read of the King George!
Ascot 3.15 - Potential To Back 3 For a Big Collect
There seems to be plenty of value on offer in this race in which i have it framed as a wide open affair.
3 of the top 4 rated runners under the 10.00 mark are at big enough odds to back for a result across the race.
My market is rated as follows.
Ascot 3.15 1m 28K (Lst) C2 3yo par10.00
No1 Albaasil 6.00
No2 Mariachi Man 7.60
No3 Rave 10.20
No4 Ahlaain 16.50
No5 Crown Counsel 14.00
No6 Alnashmy 9.50
No7 My Freedom 10.80
No8 Seattle Drive 8.90
No9 Stage Attraction 21.50
No10 Aerial Acclaim 19.00
No11 Abergeldie 15.00
OK, so we can back Mariachi Man, rated 7.60, trades at 10.00, Alnashmy, rated at 9.50, trades at 46.00 and Seattle Drive, rated 8.90, trades at 24.00 all for a result across the race, double the outlay on Mariachi Man compared to the other 2.
Alnashmy is the big value obvious place bet elect but enough value to also back Seattle Drive. 10.00 Alnashmy & 6.00 Seattle Drive, few units on each for the place.
Best value Lay bet is Aerial Acclaim at less than 3.10 in the PLACE betting market.
Good luck and happy punting.
3 of the top 4 rated runners under the 10.00 mark are at big enough odds to back for a result across the race.
My market is rated as follows.
Ascot 3.15 1m 28K (Lst) C2 3yo par10.00
No1 Albaasil 6.00
No2 Mariachi Man 7.60
No3 Rave 10.20
No4 Ahlaain 16.50
No5 Crown Counsel 14.00
No6 Alnashmy 9.50
No7 My Freedom 10.80
No8 Seattle Drive 8.90
No9 Stage Attraction 21.50
No10 Aerial Acclaim 19.00
No11 Abergeldie 15.00
OK, so we can back Mariachi Man, rated 7.60, trades at 10.00, Alnashmy, rated at 9.50, trades at 46.00 and Seattle Drive, rated 8.90, trades at 24.00 all for a result across the race, double the outlay on Mariachi Man compared to the other 2.
Alnashmy is the big value obvious place bet elect but enough value to also back Seattle Drive. 10.00 Alnashmy & 6.00 Seattle Drive, few units on each for the place.
Best value Lay bet is Aerial Acclaim at less than 3.10 in the PLACE betting market.
Good luck and happy punting.
York 3.05 - Class Is Class Clear On Top
Decent advantage available about my top elect Class Is Class, can back it in both win and place market with decent confidence.
My market is rated as follows.
York 3.05 10f88y 56K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Twice Over 5.00
No2 Class Is Class 4.20
No3 Ransom Note 11.00
No4 Saptapadi 14.00
No5 Tazeez 7.00
No6 Eleanora Duse 8.50
No7 Dominant 6.50
Only need to back the clear top elect here Class Is Class in the win market which is rated 4.20 and trades at 5.60.
That a decent advantage about this kind of horse.
Odds of 2.60 in the place market, only 2 place dividends this field, about Class Is Class is also very good value, bet this option with big confidence.
The lay betting value is around Dominant who trades at 3.90 but I have it rated 6.50 3rd elect, so that is realistically good unders being bet close to equal fav with Twice Over.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market is rated as follows.
York 3.05 10f88y 56K G2 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Twice Over 5.00
No2 Class Is Class 4.20
No3 Ransom Note 11.00
No4 Saptapadi 14.00
No5 Tazeez 7.00
No6 Eleanora Duse 8.50
No7 Dominant 6.50
Only need to back the clear top elect here Class Is Class in the win market which is rated 4.20 and trades at 5.60.
That a decent advantage about this kind of horse.
Odds of 2.60 in the place market, only 2 place dividends this field, about Class Is Class is also very good value, bet this option with big confidence.
The lay betting value is around Dominant who trades at 3.90 but I have it rated 6.50 3rd elect, so that is realistically good unders being bet close to equal fav with Twice Over.
Good luck and happy punting.
Newcastle 2.55 - Big Value Specking Opportunity
A very good value opportunity for win and place punting exists here. The outside in the betting market on Betfair is Tom Sawyer, this ones exposed form suggests it is well above the level required to win here and it is capable of hitting that level today under the conditions.
My market reads as follows.
Newcastle 2.55 6f 5.1K C3 0-90 3yo par8.00
No1 Namwahjobo 8.00
No2 Louis The Pious 5.20
No3 Mappin Time 5.40
No4 Tom Sawyer 3.40
No5 Lady Paris 7.40
No6 Another Citizen 13.50
Ive got Tom Sawyer clear top rated here at the odds of 3.40. I honestly feel it can hit a new recent high peak level here and if it does than it wins.
It is being bet as the clear outsider in this small 6 horse field at odds of 19.00. Back it each way with massive value existing vs confidence for PLACE market punters where we get odds of 6.00 for the drum to finish 1st or 2nd, pretty good insurance about something rated nearly half that price for the win!!
Namwahjobo is great laying value in the win market trading at 4.20, rated at 8.00.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market reads as follows.
Newcastle 2.55 6f 5.1K C3 0-90 3yo par8.00
No1 Namwahjobo 8.00
No2 Louis The Pious 5.20
No3 Mappin Time 5.40
No4 Tom Sawyer 3.40
No5 Lady Paris 7.40
No6 Another Citizen 13.50
Ive got Tom Sawyer clear top rated here at the odds of 3.40. I honestly feel it can hit a new recent high peak level here and if it does than it wins.
It is being bet as the clear outsider in this small 6 horse field at odds of 19.00. Back it each way with massive value existing vs confidence for PLACE market punters where we get odds of 6.00 for the drum to finish 1st or 2nd, pretty good insurance about something rated nearly half that price for the win!!
Namwahjobo is great laying value in the win market trading at 4.20, rated at 8.00.
Good luck and happy punting.
Newmarket 2.45 - Instance Deserved Favourite
The market is close to right betting Instance as the clear cut top elect, trades at 2.80, Ive got it rated slightly longer at 3.30 but still well clear on top.
My market reads as follows.
Newmarket 2.45 7f 12K C2 0-100 3yo+ par10.00 (only rated major seen chances this race)
No8 Instance 3.30
No12 Golden Delicious 7.60
No6 Ishbelle 16.80
No3 Wake Up Call 6.80
No1 Folly Bridge 27.50
No2 Sioux Rising 15.00
No4 Eucharist 6.10
No9 Breedj 50.00
The big advantage to us is the value around Eucharist in the PLACE market, Ive got it rated at 6.10 in the win market as 2nd elect and it is available at 6.60 in the PLACE market.
Also worth nibbling at Eucharist in the win market at 20/1 just incase Instance is below par here.
The laying value is in the PLACE, lay Ishbelle in the place market likely to trade at 3.50 to 4.00, lay no longer.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market reads as follows.
Newmarket 2.45 7f 12K C2 0-100 3yo+ par10.00 (only rated major seen chances this race)
No8 Instance 3.30
No12 Golden Delicious 7.60
No6 Ishbelle 16.80
No3 Wake Up Call 6.80
No1 Folly Bridge 27.50
No2 Sioux Rising 15.00
No4 Eucharist 6.10
No9 Breedj 50.00
The big advantage to us is the value around Eucharist in the PLACE market, Ive got it rated at 6.10 in the win market as 2nd elect and it is available at 6.60 in the PLACE market.
Also worth nibbling at Eucharist in the win market at 20/1 just incase Instance is below par here.
The laying value is in the PLACE, lay Ishbelle in the place market likely to trade at 3.50 to 4.00, lay no longer.
Good luck and happy punting.
Newcastle 2.25 - Marching On Clear On Top But Bet Too Short
The market stifles any potential advantage in this race.
My market reads as follows
Newcastle 2.25 7f 3.9K C4 2yo par8.00
No1 Celestrial 10.00
No2 Marching On 2.00
No3 Rocktherunway 7.30
No4 Allegri 37.00
No5 Pearl Catcher 23.00
No6 Shotley Music 7.80
No7 Just Fabulous 13.50
Ive got Marching On clear on top by a decent space just like the general betting public, big diff is they bet it at 1.65, much shorter than my quoted 2.00 value price, so no bet
Worthwhile having a very small go on Shotley Music for the PLACE, only paying 2 place dividends, Ive got it rated at 7.80 in the win market, being bet at 7.60 for the place and likely to drift a bit further.
Only laying value in this race is in the PLACE market, lay Pearl Catcher likely to trade 3.30 for the place, too short.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market reads as follows
Newcastle 2.25 7f 3.9K C4 2yo par8.00
No1 Celestrial 10.00
No2 Marching On 2.00
No3 Rocktherunway 7.30
No4 Allegri 37.00
No5 Pearl Catcher 23.00
No6 Shotley Music 7.80
No7 Just Fabulous 13.50
Ive got Marching On clear on top by a decent space just like the general betting public, big diff is they bet it at 1.65, much shorter than my quoted 2.00 value price, so no bet
Worthwhile having a very small go on Shotley Music for the PLACE, only paying 2 place dividends, Ive got it rated at 7.80 in the win market, being bet at 7.60 for the place and likely to drift a bit further.
Only laying value in this race is in the PLACE market, lay Pearl Catcher likely to trade 3.30 for the place, too short.
Good luck and happy punting.
Ascot 2.40 - Locked In Profit, Massive Confidence
Very big value betting race for me and carries very big confidence for a winning result.
My market reads as follows.
Ascot 2.40 6f 28K G3 2yof par8.00
No1 Angels Will Fall 4.30
No2 Betty Fontaine 28.00
No3 Luv U Forever 14.00
No4 Miss Lahar 26.00
No5 Red Larkspur 10.40
No6 Regal Realm 3.10
No7 Russelliana 4.70
Regal Realm is the right price on the exchanges trading at 3.00 as our major elect, big value about the 2nd elect in our rated market being Angels Will Fall being bet at 8.40.
Bet 10 units Regal Realm at 3.00 and 5 units Angels Will Fall @ 8.40.
Place punters will do best to lump onto Angels Will Fall from a value perspective, currently trades at 2.80+ for the drum to finish 1st or 2nd in this 7 runners race.
Russelliana is the short priced fav on the exchanges but I have it rated 3rd best at 4.70. Very good value lay bet in the win market trading at 2.10.
BIG CONFIDENCE WIN MARKET PLAY ON THIS RACE.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market reads as follows.
Ascot 2.40 6f 28K G3 2yof par8.00
No1 Angels Will Fall 4.30
No2 Betty Fontaine 28.00
No3 Luv U Forever 14.00
No4 Miss Lahar 26.00
No5 Red Larkspur 10.40
No6 Regal Realm 3.10
No7 Russelliana 4.70
Regal Realm is the right price on the exchanges trading at 3.00 as our major elect, big value about the 2nd elect in our rated market being Angels Will Fall being bet at 8.40.
Bet 10 units Regal Realm at 3.00 and 5 units Angels Will Fall @ 8.40.
Place punters will do best to lump onto Angels Will Fall from a value perspective, currently trades at 2.80+ for the drum to finish 1st or 2nd in this 7 runners race.
Russelliana is the short priced fav on the exchanges but I have it rated 3rd best at 4.70. Very good value lay bet in the win market trading at 2.10.
BIG CONFIDENCE WIN MARKET PLAY ON THIS RACE.
Good luck and happy punting.
Ascot 2.05 - Big Confidence Collect Race
My assessed rated market reads as follows.
Ascot 2.05 7f 12K Lst 2yo par7.00
No1 Comical 10.30
No2 Jack Who's He 28.50
No3 Pearl Charm 4.70
No4 Sound Advice 6.00
No5 Talwar 4.70
No6 Tigers Tale 28.50
No7 Trumpet Major 4.00
Trumpet Major minor clear top rated at 4.00, trades at 7.00, decent overs.
Talwar also minor overs as equal 2nd top rated at 4.70, trades at 5.90.
Back both Trumpet Major and Talwar to win with good confidence for a result across the race in the win market. Bet 6 units Trumpet Major and 4 units Talwar.
Place punters can concentrate their efforts around Trumpet Major likely to trade 3.20+ for the place, 2 place dividends. Considering I have it rated 4.00 for the win that is good overs to finish 1-2, realistically a 2.00 chance to finish top 2.
Pearl Charm is equal 2nd top rated at 4.70, trades as fav at 2.88, minor unders, decent value Lay Bet.
More races for Saturday UK racing to be added soon inc coverage of the King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Good luck and happy punting.
Ascot 2.05 7f 12K Lst 2yo par7.00
No1 Comical 10.30
No2 Jack Who's He 28.50
No3 Pearl Charm 4.70
No4 Sound Advice 6.00
No5 Talwar 4.70
No6 Tigers Tale 28.50
No7 Trumpet Major 4.00
Trumpet Major minor clear top rated at 4.00, trades at 7.00, decent overs.
Talwar also minor overs as equal 2nd top rated at 4.70, trades at 5.90.
Back both Trumpet Major and Talwar to win with good confidence for a result across the race in the win market. Bet 6 units Trumpet Major and 4 units Talwar.
Place punters can concentrate their efforts around Trumpet Major likely to trade 3.20+ for the place, 2 place dividends. Considering I have it rated 4.00 for the win that is good overs to finish 1-2, realistically a 2.00 chance to finish top 2.
Pearl Charm is equal 2nd top rated at 4.70, trades as fav at 2.88, minor unders, decent value Lay Bet.
More races for Saturday UK racing to be added soon inc coverage of the King George V1 & Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Good luck and happy punting.
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Arsaadi Good Confidence Win Bet
The 3.20 at Sandown offers up good value about a good confidence top elect Arsaadi. Trades at 3.90, rated at 3.40.
My market reads as follows.
WIN BETTING
Sandown 3.20 No1 Arsaadi - 4 units @ 3.90
LAY BETTING
Sandown 3.20 No4 Kinetica, lay to risk 10 units @ 4.90.
Good luck and happy punting.
My market reads as follows.
WIN BETTING
Sandown 3.20 No1 Arsaadi - 4 units @ 3.90
LAY BETTING
Sandown 3.20 No4 Kinetica, lay to risk 10 units @ 4.90.
Good luck and happy punting.
Wednesday, 20 July 2011
Viking Storm Decent Overs At Lingfield
The 4.30 at Lingfield is shaping up as one of the better value betting races of the day. Viking Storm is the value elect for win punters here as it attempts to carry topweight but the hidden merit associated to a few of its recent starts suggests it is very well placed here.
My market for this race reads as follows.
WIN BETTING
Viking Storm is being bet at 6.40 early on Betfair, excellent value about a rated 3.60 chance.
Lingfield 4.30 No1 Viking Storm - 4 unit win bet @ 6.40 (likely to firm to a minor degree)
PLACE BETTING
Same horse, same result we think, great thing here is the fact of only 2 place dividends, likely to get 2.40+ once the market takes shape on Betfair going on the win price on offer.
Lingfield 4.30 No1 Viking Storm - 10 unit place bet @ 2.30+.
LAY BETTING
Gold Mine is the best value lay while it is trading lower than 3.60 or thereabouts. But it is 3rd elect in my rated market so dont go overboard risking too much.
Lingfield 4.30 No3 Gold Mine - lay to risk 5 units @ 3.60
Good luck and happy punting
My market for this race reads as follows.
WIN BETTING
Viking Storm is being bet at 6.40 early on Betfair, excellent value about a rated 3.60 chance.
Lingfield 4.30 No1 Viking Storm - 4 unit win bet @ 6.40 (likely to firm to a minor degree)
PLACE BETTING
Same horse, same result we think, great thing here is the fact of only 2 place dividends, likely to get 2.40+ once the market takes shape on Betfair going on the win price on offer.
Lingfield 4.30 No1 Viking Storm - 10 unit place bet @ 2.30+.
LAY BETTING
Gold Mine is the best value lay while it is trading lower than 3.60 or thereabouts. But it is 3rd elect in my rated market so dont go overboard risking too much.
Lingfield 4.30 No3 Gold Mine - lay to risk 5 units @ 3.60
Good luck and happy punting
Empowering Hard To Beat At Naas
The Listed Sweet Mimosa Stakes (Naas 7.30) looks a perfect opportunity for Empowering to get back into the winners circle after being well below par vs stronger over unsuitable trips at its last 2 starts, a drop in trip and grade will see it hit the level it showed first up 3 starts ago in G3 company winning by a good margin. Early on it is 8/1 with bookmakers and as a rated 4.20 chance that is good overs.
My market for this race reads as follows
WIN BETTING
There is enough depth in this market to back both Empowering at 8/1 and one of our equal 2nd elects Radharcnafarraige at 7/1 (rated 6.80) for a result across the race.
Naas 7.30 No3 Empowering - 3 unit win bet @ 8/1
Naas 7.30 No5 Radharcnafarraige - 2 unit win bet @ 7/1
PLACE BETTING
Clearly Empowering becomes the place bet here as clear cut top elect.
Naas 7.30 No3 Empowering - 5 unit place bet (likely to be above 3.00 going on early Betfair win market)
LAY BETTING
Alanza trades between 3.50 and 3.80 on Betfair early, that is definitely well under its true value quote of 12.00, lay confidently in the win market.
Naas 7.30 No8 Alanza - lay to risk 10 units @ 3.80 (may drift slightly)
Good luck and happy punting.
My market for this race reads as follows
There is enough depth in this market to back both Empowering at 8/1 and one of our equal 2nd elects Radharcnafarraige at 7/1 (rated 6.80) for a result across the race.
Naas 7.30 No3 Empowering - 3 unit win bet @ 8/1
Naas 7.30 No5 Radharcnafarraige - 2 unit win bet @ 7/1
PLACE BETTING
Clearly Empowering becomes the place bet here as clear cut top elect.
Naas 7.30 No3 Empowering - 5 unit place bet (likely to be above 3.00 going on early Betfair win market)
LAY BETTING
Alanza trades between 3.50 and 3.80 on Betfair early, that is definitely well under its true value quote of 12.00, lay confidently in the win market.
Naas 7.30 No8 Alanza - lay to risk 10 units @ 3.80 (may drift slightly)
Good luck and happy punting.
Tuesday, 19 July 2011
Wednesday 20 July - Can We Hit A 20/1 winner at Balaklava?
The 2nd race on the card at Balaklava on Wednesday is a very wide open affair with a fair few of these at or about the same level, two of the closely top five rated runners are 20/1 and 50/1 on the Morning Line. So a VALUE ALERT go out at this stage for this race.
BETTING UPDATE
3 of these are on or over the 15.00 mark in betting, back all 3 for a result across the race, they are No7 AKHADRAANA @ 15.00, No9 LIGHTNING LADY @ 14.00 & No11 STING LIKE A BEE @ 30.00 on Queensland TAB fixed odds 10 minutes from jump.
No11 STING LIKE A BEE is good odds for the PLACE @ 5.50 fixed odds.
My rated market is as follows, listing only the seen live chances
WIN BETTING
Two of these major 5 chances out to our rated 9.70 line are big overs on the Morning Line priced at 19.00 and 51.00. They are No8 Forcryingoutloud (rated 9.70 / morning line 19.00) and No11 Sting Like A Bee (rated 9.00 / morning line 51.00)
If both of them are bet at minimum 15/1 for one of them and 20/1 for the other than it is worth backing both on the same 1.5 unit outlay for a result across the race.
PLACE BETTING
This may end up being one of the best value vs confidence bets on the day if the value stands up as per the morning line price for No11 Sting Like A Bee suggests, every chance we will get 5/1+ or 6.00 for the PLACE about this horse, that is basically 5/1 about a 7/4 chance! I will assess this closer to jump time and update again on the final price being bet.
Morning Line prices as per Racingandsports below
BETTING UPDATE
3 of these are on or over the 15.00 mark in betting, back all 3 for a result across the race, they are No7 AKHADRAANA @ 15.00, No9 LIGHTNING LADY @ 14.00 & No11 STING LIKE A BEE @ 30.00 on Queensland TAB fixed odds 10 minutes from jump.
No11 STING LIKE A BEE is good odds for the PLACE @ 5.50 fixed odds.
My rated market is as follows, listing only the seen live chances
WIN BETTING
Two of these major 5 chances out to our rated 9.70 line are big overs on the Morning Line priced at 19.00 and 51.00. They are No8 Forcryingoutloud (rated 9.70 / morning line 19.00) and No11 Sting Like A Bee (rated 9.00 / morning line 51.00)
If both of them are bet at minimum 15/1 for one of them and 20/1 for the other than it is worth backing both on the same 1.5 unit outlay for a result across the race.
PLACE BETTING
This may end up being one of the best value vs confidence bets on the day if the value stands up as per the morning line price for No11 Sting Like A Bee suggests, every chance we will get 5/1+ or 6.00 for the PLACE about this horse, that is basically 5/1 about a 7/4 chance! I will assess this closer to jump time and update again on the final price being bet.
Morning Line prices as per Racingandsports below
Good luck and happy punting.
Wednesday 20 July - Canterbury R5, good early value.
Race 5 at Canterbury on Wednesday 20 July in Australia shapes as an excellent value betting race. Early fixed odds markets sees both our top 2 elects being bet at overs giving us a bit of an edge in the win market in a race I am fairly confident about collecting on.
My rated market is as follows. FIXED ODDS QLD TAB market (www.tabonline.com.au) are highlighted in yellow to the right of the my rated prices.
WIN BETTING
Top elect Arabica is being bet at overs on offer at 5.50 and Mrs Onassis is also the right price at 7.50. those 2 look to have this raace between them.
Canterbury R5 No8 Arabica - 3 unit win bet @ 5.50.
Canterbury R5 No10 Mrs Onassis - 2 unit win bet @ 7.50
Both of these may trade better prices on the exchanges depending upon what if any of the other runners are scratched on the potential slow track. At the current prices minor value exists.
LAY BETTING
The potential lays here are Lough Read and Clam Chowder who are at 5.00 & 6.00 in early Qtab fixed odds markets. Obviously they will trade slightly longer in a tighter market on the exchanges so I will look closer at that an hour before the race.
The Qtab fixed odds market looks as follows at the time of writing.
My rated market is as follows. FIXED ODDS QLD TAB market (www.tabonline.com.au) are highlighted in yellow to the right of the my rated prices.
Top elect Arabica is being bet at overs on offer at 5.50 and Mrs Onassis is also the right price at 7.50. those 2 look to have this raace between them.
Canterbury R5 No8 Arabica - 3 unit win bet @ 5.50.
Canterbury R5 No10 Mrs Onassis - 2 unit win bet @ 7.50
Both of these may trade better prices on the exchanges depending upon what if any of the other runners are scratched on the potential slow track. At the current prices minor value exists.
LAY BETTING
The potential lays here are Lough Read and Clam Chowder who are at 5.00 & 6.00 in early Qtab fixed odds markets. Obviously they will trade slightly longer in a tighter market on the exchanges so I will look closer at that an hour before the race.
The Qtab fixed odds market looks as follows at the time of writing.
Good luck and happy punting.
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