The King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes G1 is the feature race on the cards for in the Uk on Saturday and once again a "name" has been overbet, this happens all the time with what we call "people's champions" and Workforce definitely fits that mould after winning the Arc last season, this years middle distance division is very strong and coupled with the fact I feel it is a very strong year for 3yo stayers (near vintage like!) then Nathaniel is every hope of developing into a top class G1 middle distance horse, if so that makes Workforce even more vulnerable than I have it rated (3rd elect at 4.40)
My rated market reads as follows.
Ascot 4.30 12f 603K G1 3yo+ par8.00
No1 Debussy 140.00
No2 Rewilding 3.70
No3 St Nicholas Abbey 3.40
No4 Workforce 4.40
No5 Nathaniel 4.80
St Nicholas Abbey this season looks back to its dominant 2yo form which had it pinned as a superstar, that would have converted into stronger 3yo form than Workforce showed from his stellar 3yo season, Rewilding also has the edge on Workforce through the So You Think formline. Nathaniel could be anything in a super strong year for 3yo's. A few questions to answer for the exposed Workforce.
So in this small market we can unleash with decent confidence on St Nicholas Abbey trading at 5.00 (rated 3.40 minor top elect) and also Nathaniel who is the "scope" horse, trading at 7.60, rated close to top elect 4th at 4.80, scope suggests may well be better therefore have to include.
St Nicholas Abbey is the big value hard to oppose PLACE bet trading at 2.30 in the place market, nice overs, I think it should be approx 1.85.
The value lay bet is simply Workforce as discussed above has a fair few questions to answer as a clear cut top betting elect at 2.30. Lay in the win market with decent confidence that one of the other 3 major players in the market under 9/1 will turn Workforce back at the business end.
Good luck and happy punting.
No comments:
Post a Comment